Bitcoin has seen a pretty big fall this
week along with the entire crypto
markets however some people like Tom Lee
saw the pretty bullish outlook for the
cryptocurrency even though Lee slashed
his 25k price point for bitcoins end of
the year price earlier this week he’s
then maintained a 15k price point even
amidst the current market crash
even though experts from Bloomberg also
say that Bitcoin could go as low as 1500
they still kind of think that’s a good
thing saying that that’s what makes the
coin less boring whatever that means
anyway we’ve talked to some experts
about this including Alex Tapscott
Anthony pom piano and Tony Bates to find
out what’s going on with this market
crash there is no cause there is never a
single cause that causes any crash there
is never a single cause that causes a
big run up the Bitcoin was overpriced
it’s been overpriced all year if coin
does that Bitcoin constantly drops 80 or
90 percent to make sure people know what
they’re doing that they understand why
they’re in Bitcoin and I think there
were so many big buyers of Bitcoin and
they weren’t buying it for the right
reasons they were buying it to make a
quick buck and to be famous and to make
money for their investors and I think a
lot of these people need to exit the
market completely there’s a lot of what
I call the conspiracy theories are out
right is it folks are just selling
because kind of end-of-year stuff is it
because of the Bitcoin cash or is it
because I saw a report today that said
you know people who bought in early 2017
are starting to sell now because they’re
near their cost basis I think it could
be a combination of all that but I don’t
know if it actually really matters right
I tell people that the individual
reasoning is much less important than
the longer-term trend we’ve been in a
bear market for awhile I think we’re
gonna continue to stay in that bear
market until we kind of bottom out well
I don’t think there’s any one particular
cause to the market crash you know if
you look what’s happened over the past
year so the market has been a declining
since an all-time high in January and I
think that the high that we reached was
an artificial one it was based on a lot
of hot money entering the sector and
pushing valuations up to a level
that were totally unsustainable so I
think most of the correction that we’ve
seen so far has been very healthy I
think what’s happened in the past couple
of days or a couple of weeks has
basically been a flight to liquidity so
effectively we’re in a period of time
where there are a lot of investors who
owned lots of different kinds of
alternative coin you know or things
other than Bitcoin basically and as the
market continues to correct they’re
looking to liquid liquidating to
something that has more fungibility more
liquidity and then what’s compounding
that I think is that over the past I
should say about a year ago a bunch of
people went out and raised a lot of
money for funds which are nearing the
one-year maturity date when typically
investors are able to redeem and so it
wouldn’t be surprising if I saw a lot of
those different kinds of investors
redeeming now and that’s a exacerbating
that liquidity crunch and then the
compounding that there are a lot of
projects who’ve raised money over the
past year who are looking at their
Treasury basically evaporating because
they still hold a disproportionate
amount in ether and Bitcoin and they’re
essentially trying to liquidate in the
fiat as quickly as possible so it’s sort
of a perfect storm of a number of things
one was your valuations were too high
number two is were in the midst of a
prolonged bear market and then adding on
to that you’ve got this rush to
liquidate which I think is causing
people to take bids at any level as
effectively and driving your prices down
even more
psychological argument is just there’s
not enough pain yet people are still you
know you look on Twitter saying oh it’s
coming back it’s coming back right
there’s this belief that you know it’s
gonna be okay
and I think that we that means we
haven’t reached true capitulation yet
and when we reach that that’s kind of a
psychological bottom if you will when
you look at the technicals their
supports that seem to be somewhere in
that you know 4,000 to 2800 there’s
multiple supports are there and so I
think that we’ve kind of punched through
the rest and so maybe it’s offset 4,000
maybe is 3500 you know 3,000 but but
it’s definitely farther below where we
are today and I think the other thing is
the historical its right so you know his
historical analysis does not necessarily
mean that’s what’s going to happen in
the future but it is a good way to get
perspective right so if you look at kind
of the first two market cycles there was
over 80 percent draw downs so at 75
percent today which is close but if we
went to $3,000 it put us right about 85
percent right off that haul time high so
I think that’s really kind of the the
triangulation of multiple arguments
around psychology technicals historical
zet cetera that get us into that sub
$4,000 price point as a general treat
I’m doing my best to navigate my
followers so that we can properly time
the bottom but at the moment I don’t see
it in sight at the moment it looks to me
like we can fall significantly lower and
we can and it can last significantly
longer I hope it can change because in
this in the last few weeks people
finally started to understand what a
bear market can do but I think people
are still in a very happy place with
Bitcoin and the Bitcoin ecosystem has
this amazing ability to put everybody in
a very sad place and only when that
happens
well the price finally bottom and then
start to go to new all-time highs
there’s a high probability that Bitcoin
will continue to go down in value
we could see sub 4000 somewhere in there
like thirty five hundred three thousand
dollar range and then from the timing
perspective you know we think it goes
into to us in nineteen could go as long
as till q3 of 2019 and so if that
happens you know we’re talking about
another nine or ten months possibly of
this bear market until there’s you know
True Blood in the street capitulation
and people basically give up and leave
the industry I don’t think we hit the
bottle it’s really hard to say Bitcoin
can reach you know a thousand dollars if
it falls quickly or we can stay here in
the three to four thousand dollar range
into the summer and that would be enough
it’s not about a specific price it’s not
about a specific time it’s about
people’s mentality when enough people
exit the system because of bad decisions
and there’s nobody left to exit Bitcoin
will finally bottom this may happen at a
very low price of Bitcoin this may also
happen at a distant point in time we’re
ten months into you know a bear market
now in normal financial markets
typically bear markets don’t last this
long but in crypto we the only precedent
we have as the periods that we saw in
the past and in the past we’ve seen
periods where prices of correcting very
quickly and we found it but we’ve also
seen periods where they um things have
continued to decline for long periods of
time I’m looking at the market today and
you know trying to gauge not just the
the financial drivers but also the
emotional drivers of this market and I
think that there are a lot of people who
will remain hopeful until relatively
recently and now they’re very fearful
and what happens after fear typically is
capitulation and after capitulation
people basically just give up so I’m not
sure if we reached that official
capitulation point yet I wouldn’t be
surprised that prices rebound here you
always get a dead cat bounce after
there’s a period of you know prolonged
downturns
but we could retest the flow and we
could go even lower
all of these speculators and the
tourists have sold they’ve left and what
you get is you’re left with this base of
holders who are saying you know I’m a
long-term believer I’m not going
anywhere
and and there’s really that true seller
fatigue and it feels like that’s
probably lower than where we are today I
think that the government crackdown on
cash can help Bitcoin go a long way as
the government starts to eliminate cash
more physical cash more and more people
will be will be looking at Bitcoin if
the global economy starts to go down
really badly
the government’s might go after people
for taxes and people might be looking at
Bitcoin as a bit of a safe haven we need
to have people feel that there’s value
in these assets and be willing to buy
them not because of momentum or because
of FOMO but because they’re actually
valuing it on what the fundamental
utility could be long-term so to me I’m
looking at a lot of projects that raise
money over the past year which have yet
to even launch but are coming out in the
next little while so projects like
cosmos and polka dot for example and I’m
also looking at some of the emerging
networks the ones that follow the theory
and that are now live things like yoson
Aon icon Tasos and others to start
showing organic growth in terms of new
application development and also
reaching milestones in terms of
technical maturity so the things that I
look for not really catalysts they’re
not the momentum or sentiment they’re
actually fundamentals I want to see that
this technology is being used that
people are actually getting value out of
it and that the promise that a lot of
people made is beginning to get
fulfilled you know in the end ultimately
the the thing about technology is that
people generally tend to vastly
overestimate its potential in the short
term and then vastly under may
underestimate its potential in the long
term but who’s hanging their hopes on a
reversal in the market because of things
like a Bitcoin ETF or so called
institutional buying or you know the
adoption of Bitcoin futures through bags
I think all of the catalysts that people
are looking at will be positive but
don’t hang your hat on them you know if
you’re only hoping that you know one
single news event is going to change the
direction of a marketplace I think
you’re going to be mistaken I think that
there’s a lot more that needs to happen
for this market to turn around yeah of
course I view those things as being very
positive one one thing I will note
though on this whole institutional
investor side you know institutional
investors
in this industry for years when people
talk about the upcoming institutional
investors they may be talking about more
traditional vanilla style investors you
know mutual funds and sovereign wealth
funds but there are hedge funds and
family offices and venture capital
investors and high net worth individuals
you know people who you traditionally
considered the institutions that have
been in this market for years and you
know I know that firsthand and I know a
lot of people who work in this industry
know that as well
so I don’t think that there’s any big
wave of institutional investors that’s
going to you know move the needle
anytime soon but I do think that at
these valuations they’re going to be a
lot of people looking to reload and her
to look to invest a lot of money with
prices where they are
sometimes no action is the best action a
lot of times what helps is creating a
time base for periodic buying or selling
schedule and then just staying super
disciplined to that right and saying
look I’ve got long term belief in either
direction of an asset and I’m gonna stay
disciplined and that usually ends up
being you know working out pretty well
for people so my advice right now is if
you were thinking of quitting your job
and going into the Bitcoin ecosystem
don’t do it right now wait another year
try to accumulate more seed capital and
if you see Bitcoin drop below that
$3,000 range start accumulating that
Bitcoin this is not the time to panic
sell don’t ever panic sell and you’re
better off like waiting and selling at
five or 6,000 at a little bit higher
price and if and if we did bottom I
don’t believe that we did but if we did
bottom at 4000 this morning and we start
to go up to new all-time highs that’s
okay you can buy it back above 10,000
the important part is to buy it between
buying a 10,000 and you hold it in 250
thousand a hundred thousand well I’ve
never really understood the concept of
huddling I understand the concept of
holding something long-term because you
think that it’s under priced and you
think the value is going to go up but if
you are looking at investment today and
you think on its merits you know there’s
a chance that it could go down and could
go down for a while then I don’t see why
you wouldn’t try and mitigate your
losses and then re-enter at a lower
price and also there are you know
practical tax reasons why you may want
to sell especially if you’re going into
your end to capture a capital loss so
the question of the concept of huddling
I agreed with the idea of owning
something long-term because you believe
in it but I think that holding just for
the sake of holding without
consideration for other facts or other
factors is not necessarily the best
investment strategy
so if you look at the mining perspective
we’ve got people that you know we’ve
been talking with that are mining
anywhere between 4,500 to 6,000 most of
those people are shutting off but
there’s a very large portion of people
who are mining at you know sub $3,500
price points they usually were getting
you know either free low-cost or like
two cents a kilowatt hour power and this
is you know all the traditional areas
China etc and so we don’t think they’re
going anywhere we think there’s a long
way for the price to go before they you
know get in jeopardy of mining at a loss
and so those are the people who are
really worth paying attention to that’s
the bulk of the miners they’re doing it
commercially and those are the ones that
it would be really scary if they start
to shut off the machines if you run a
very efficient very real well researched
mining operation that you’re probably
doing ok I’m pretty sure there are
miners where their cost of production is
between two and three thousand dollars
per Bitcoin and if you’re mining
operation was not properly designed and
then your mining operation is going to
shut down it’s gonna separate those that
know what they’re doing when it comes to
mining a dozer