Hello everyone this is adam meister the
bitcoinmeister the disrupt meister
welcome to the bitcoin of focus show
today is September the 3rd 2019 strong
hand alright this is a new show a lot of
you have a hard time focusing and but
you like specific guests that we’ve had
on today’s focus is on trace Maher and I
put together some clips you’re gonna
love it
it’s easy to digest you’re gonna get the
full smack of trace and so enjoy it
here it is pound that like button like
if you’re buying Bitcoin you want the
price to be as cheap as possible you
want to buy it when it’s cheap not when
it’s expensive and that’s really what I
like to use the Maher multiple to do is
is find out you know when is it cheap on
a relative basis and when is it
expensive on a relative basis and then
buy or sell appropriately based on based
on that indicator and it filters out all
that daily noise it like it helps you
not get yanked around by mister market
you know you’re able to look filter all
that out look at the long term trend and
it just helps really give clarity to
that decision making process yes so at
least the way I like to approach
allocating capital first I do the
fundamental analysis you know in in
bitcoins case that’s the Seven Network
effects of why you would hire Bitcoin
then you know I do a technical analysis
in my case I I like being the hot the
hot or of last resort right like the
hablar and that means somebody that is
never gonna sell the Bitcoin ever period
and that’s that’s really what gives the
strength to the Bitcoin price well if
you’re going to become the hardware of
last resort it means that you want to
get the most amount of bitcoins or the
most amount of Satoshi’s as possible
well how can you do that I like to
filter out the long term noise that the
short term noise by using a long term
trend so in the Maher multiples case you
take the 200-day moving average you take
the current price you take the current
price
/ that 200-day moving average and it
gives you the multiple and you can look
at that multiple everyday and when that
multi and then you can also plot that
multiple overtime and Preston who came
up and coined the phrase Mayer multiple
he’s written blog post about it
Mayer multiple comm and what we’re able
to see is that sometimes that ratio will
get really crazy like am I going to get
up to like 8 X or or like in December it
got up to 3.7 X and that means that it’s
very expensive bitcoins are very
expensive relative to other assets
particularly the dollar because you can
do this maher multiple in any price
ratio you can do it Bitcoin yen you
could do it bitcoin gold you could do
Bitcoin Microsoft shares you know that
would be a fun one I would love to see
Bill Gates short Bitcoin in a really big
way with his Microsoft shares you know
since he thinks it’s a kind of not a
good asset to own or whatever or Warren
Buffett for that matter but they won’t
put their money where their mouth is
they won’t short it because they’re
chickens and they know they’re wrong but
anyways you know when you look at that
price ratio and you do use that Meir
multiple then you can start acquiring
Bitcoin when it’s cheap and that’s
really what you want to do you want to
buy Bitcoin when it’s cheap and you want
to sell Bitcoin when it’s expensive and
you know if you’re a hardware it doesn’t
mean that you would never sell Bitcoin
you might have lots of reasons to sell
Bitcoin for example you might want to
pay taxes on fort gains you know so you
might have 4k you might have something
like Bitcoin cash you might have sold it
for $4 or for other Bitcoin and then you
might have a taxable gain on that and so
you might need to sell bitcoins in order
to pay that taxable gain and if you’re
using something like the mayor multiple
to to time those sales then you can end
up haughtily more bitcoins or you might
just want to have lifestyle improvements
you know the famous Lambeau or whatever
personally I don’t see much point in
discretionary spending like that that
isn’t very useful or helpful for other
people
but some people do and like go for it
you know get an order to Mike Roger
barrel I go for it because when you sell
those bitcoins
well there’s gonna be another hot where
that’s gonna step in and buy them and so
you know I really like the idea of you
know spreading the bitcoins around and
getting more hot Wars more hot Wars of
last resort because the more widely we
can spread these bitcoins and have hot
lers of last resort the stronger that
bitcoin price is going to be and the
deeper that liquidity is going to be and
that’s all about the first Network
effect of Bitcoin and we got seven of
them taking root at the same time but
yeah that first one and the way to
really be the most efficient or hotter
of last resort and acquire the most
bitcoins in my opinion it’s using
something like the the mayor multiple to
time those purchases strong hand people
don’t buy that Lamborghini is where
people just do not appreciate the risk
that they’re taking on for example we
talked to in Denver during the panel I
talked about the dole foods case I mean
this is absolutely insane the amount of
risk that people are taking with their
401ks with their IRAs with their etrade
accounts with their interactive
brokerage accounts and now the Federal
Reserve starting to raise interest rates
and the European Central Bank is
thinking about stopping its quantitative
easing do you have any idea what that
could possibly do to implode balance
sheets across the world because you
start getting bad debt and then you
start having counterparty risk and you
start having more bank failures in the
European Central Bank I just tweeted out
that they’re talking about we need to
have clearer guidelines for for when we
actually allow people to withdraw cash
from their accounts you know and not
physical cash like you know altcoin euro
cash I mean it is absolutely crazy so
like the dole foods case we had we had
36 million shares authorized and in the
in the court case that it came
about that there are 48 million shares
that were facially valid on people’s
brokerage statements I mean selling the
same thing twice and this is common
practice and just the way it’s done
because of how archaic the the plumbing
is in that system and so you think you
own shares but you don’t really own
shares prove it and and then we get to
something like Bitcoin and you know
Benny Benny talks about using a hardware
wallet and I think most people don’t
even understand what they mean when they
say Hardware wallet usually I think what
they’re what they mean is they’re using
a dedicated device something like a
treasurer or a ledger and they’re using
that to hold their keys in an offline
way now in my personal case I think that
the safest way to hold your keys is to
run a full Bitcoin node run armory on a
on a computer that never touches the
internet something like a purism laptop
specifically if you really want to get
crazy disable all the networking
components possible and don’t even have
a Wi-Fi card in it which you can get
with a pure ISM laptop and then if for
operational security implement stuff
like the glacier protocol glacier
protocol org and in this case the purism
laptop would be functioning as your
hardware wallet the difference between
the purism laptop and a ledger wallet or
a treasurer for example is that you’re
running a like with a treasurer or a
ledger you’re running a device that is
specifically made to run Bitcoin in some
ways you’re trusting that company a lot
you’re trusting them not to put a
backdoor in their code you’re trusting
them a lot not to put a backdoor in
their hardware you’re trusting pit that
what’s actually running on that USB
device is actually what was intended
there were some people they bought they
bought ledger or treasure or wallets off
of Amazon and they get it in the mail
and it already has the seed filled out
third party that’s that’s thinking of
big mistake buying of that but but if
you’re a noob if you’re new at this you
don’t have any that’s just you have no
idea you don’t
know what you don’t know right and and
so knowledge is powerful and its key in
this in this area and so that’s one of
the reasons I like I like Armory in
Bitcoin core one you can verify the PGP
key of both of them too you can run it
on it you can run the on a computer that
never touches the internet ever the the
software that’s generating and securing
the private keys I mean that’s powerful
and even more important is you get a lot
of benefits in terms of security through
obstinate that this is necessarily what
you should rely on but when you get that
purism laptop and it doesn’t have a
Wi-Fi card in it and it never touches
the Internet well purism doesn’t have
any idea what you’re going to use that
for they don’t have any idea whether
you’re going to use that to secure
nuclear codes or whether you’re going to
secure that you’re going to be securing
Bitcoin keys with it right and so you’re
not you’re and then you can go download
the armory software Bitcoin core from
wherever you want and you could actually
have two purism laptops one that talks
to the internet and one that is solely
cold and offline and then you’re you and
then the one that you’re talking on the
internet with you only do that to talk
to your Bitcoin anode and if you really
want to be super ultra secure about this
you don’t even talk to the internet the
usual way you get a block stream
satellite and you hook that up to your
purism laptop and now you’ve got a
completely cold storage laptop that is
updated with the Bitcoin blockchain and
you’re doing all of the validation
yourself right
this is powerful powerful stuff we’ve
now got infrastructure for Bitcoin that
is totally separate from traditional
Internet infrastructure that means that
you’re able to download the Bitcoin
blockchain without going through an ISP
you know so how’s the NSA going to know
that you’re actually using Bitcoin right
because you’re not going through an ISP
you’re downloading it through a
satellite I mean these are the types of
things that you got to keep in mind
because yeah guess what as we’re seeing
with with all of this circus around the
the Trump Rush and best
they are weaponizing the DOJ and the FBI
against political opponents and they’ve
all read in the Obama administration
already engaged in weaponizing the
monetary system by things like operation
choke point and the banking blockade
against WikiLeaks so if you think that
they’re not going to weaponize this to
steal people’s private keys if they can
you got another thing coming because how
else are they gonna get the money right
and so you you have to be as you have to
be super ultra paranoid when it comes to
one just the current financial system
because like the dole foods case and the
Procter & Gamble case show they just
make stuff up in terms of who owns what
and they don’t have any idea who
actually owns what they own but to the
the current financial system is also
completely imploding and that we’re
gonna see interest rates rise and
counterparty risk flares head and
quantitative easing come to an end so
that’s all gonna be you know we got a
whole other round of very interesting
stuff coming down the pipeline and
people just they aren’t taking into
account the amount of risk that that
that’s out there and so Benny hits on
several key points with that with that
point of risk and you know in my case I
just I want to have the least amount of
risk possible and then move out from
there
you know I want to find what is the what
is the asset with the lowest risk
profile
what is the risk-free asset oh you think
it’s you think it’s this altcoin called
the Federal Reserve dollar they can just
be printed out of thin air that we have
no idea how many there are and it’s a
mission schedule it’s determined behind
closed doors and the source code is an
open source and you can’t hold your own
private keys like that’s your risk-free
asset that altcoin you got to be kidding
me that’s an all coin scam if I ever
heard of one and so you know we have to
reassess the landscape given the new
technology and then begin making capital
allocation decisions from there and then
in in a beautiful thing about this is
the markets gonna do it regardless and
so the people who are correct will have
economic gains and the people who are
incorrect will have economic losses
and you can look at somebody like Warren
Buffett or Bill Gates they are getting
obliterated in terms of their financial
performance compared to two holders of
Bitcoin I mean in my case in seven years
I’ve had a return 7 X Warren Buffett’s
return in his entire career of 53 years
his financial performance is abysmal
given the latest technology and the
latest opportunities that are out there
so I I mean I don’t know why people
listen or pay attention to him his
scoreboard sucks to be honest first you
know Bitcoin core software’s free I
funded armory which had fragmented
backups like five years ago
so you can do samir secret sharing you
can split keys up any which way you want
you know so you’ve got multi signature
you’ve got fragmented backups and you
can run it on a Raspberry Pi which is
like super cheap you know or you could
run it on a hundred dollar laptop and
with a hundred dollar block stream
you’re talking $200 to to validate the
entire blockchain and to have multi
signature and stuff anywhere in the
world because the satellites free now
the other thing that he hit on which I
think is an absolute lie is anytime you
seed in any way either validation of the
blockchain or custody of the private
keys you’re seeding your monetary
sovereignty that’s so so that this idea
that you can see different pieces and
yet retain your monetary sovereignty
that is a complete lie and it’s intended
to attack the foundations the
philosophical foundation of
cryptocurrency and there are a lot of
examples throughout the history of this
industry where people who have relied on
third parties in any way have been
completely obliterated mount GOx like do
we need to go on right and so you know
this this idea that you can you can
somehow dance between seeding custody of
the keys and retaining monetary
sovereignty that’s just a that’s just a
bunch of hogwash and you’ve got to be
extremely skeptical of anybody who tries
to tell you that in anybody that it
tried
to make it more costly to validate the
blockchain
they’re also attacking your monetary
sovereignty so when you try to raise the
block size when you try to lower the ten
minute the ten minute time frame those
are security parameters that ensure
monetary sovereignty and so whenever you
try to attack those or make those less
restrictive
they’re attacking monetary sovereignty
and the Manero Manero network is a great
example of of the problems that come
from people who just roll over like some
beaten dog and accept their monetary
sovereignty being stolen from them and
not asserting it what has happened with
Manero lately well bit main wanted to
create a six for the Monaro network and
the Monaro developers issued a
proof-of-work change and so what did bit
Maine do they did Five Forks on Manero
and then they did a twenty-one block
reorge attack on Manero I mean we
haven’t really seen significant
reorganization that’s a huge huge deal
and can help protect you against reorg
attacks and so you know look I
understand monetary sovereignty is not
for everybody some people just want to
be slaves and just want to roll over and
seat their money and cede their power to
other people and you know what that’s
your choice you want to be a slave
that’s now your choice because the tools
are here they’re extremely cheap they’re
available globally and so anybody who
wants to be a slave you can choose to be
a slave but don’t think that you’re free
and definitely don’t try to misinform or
lie to other people and give them a
false sense of security that they’ve
claimed a monetary sovereignty when they
have it here’s another problem in your
fill up and in the philosophical
foundation of what you just asserted I
don’t feel strongly about whether
somebody chooses to be a slave or not I
feel strongly about when people make
assertions that aren’t grounded in the
reality when
somebody for example tell somebody that
they have monetary sovereignty when they
don’t when they’re lying to them when
they’re committing fraud you know that’s
that’s where I started getting emotional
and it comes out of a form of zeal or a
form of protection of the person that’s
being misinformed or lied to that’s
that’s where my that’s where my passion
comes from you know if somebody wants to
choose to be to be a slave like go for
it but I want you to freely choose it I
want you to know that there are options
and and know the what what you’re really
doing and know what you’re really buying
you know that that’s another thing like
this Bitcoin cache is the real Bitcoin
like why would we want any type of
observation or any type of infringement
on people’s ability to freely choose
what they’re actually buying well I want
people to know exactly what they’re
buying and if you’re if your protocol is
so strong and if your protocol is is so
amazing and so great why would you want
to have it be confusingly similar or
otherwise be confused with Bitcoin I
mean it just shows a severe amount of
weakness so I don’t understand why you
call it Bitcoin cash why you don’t just
call it be cash to remove that ambiguity
in that doubt so that you’re not
confusing people yeah I think we’ve had
a wonderful discussion today you know
it’s been wide-ranging everywhere from
the fraud of the current monetary system
to the fraud of Bitcoin cash not using a
name like be cash it’s not confusingly
similar or intentionally misleading
we’ve we’ve had a great discussion about
monetary sovereignty about the
importance that people need to take in
their own choices and in their own
decisions when it comes to that and not
just rolling over and seating it away
and you know Benny makes great points it
doesn’t matter
until it’s the only thing that matters
right it doesn’t matter until you’re ten
million dollars disappears I mean I have
a friend that they were using blockchain
dot info and I told him to use armory
and in a couple years later I get a ping
on skype all my
coins are gone well those bitcoins would
be ten million dollars today you know
what could have been what could have
been for them right I mean I have
another friend he had what would be
about five six million dollars today in
Mount GOx he got laid off over a year
ago
he’s been on unemployment he’s in deep
depression because of that you know what
could have been he could have been a
multi-millionaire instead he’s like
living on his parents couch literally so
like when you don’t have monetary
sovereignty it really enjoys a lot of
your choices across a wide variety of
space in your life and so hey you know
that I want people to have monetary
sovereignty but if they don’t you know
that’s their choice now because we have
the tools and we’ve rolled the tools out
and they’re free and they’re open-source
and we don’t you know we we take part in
this in a very open and transparent way
and we don’t try to mislead people or or
engage in fraud or different names or
things like this like we want people to
know exactly what they’re doing and
that’s always been part of the Bitcoin
ethos and so it’s been very interesting
watching these other communities pop up
where they value different things they
don’t value honesty and transparency and
clarity and specificity and accuracy you
know so hey if they don’t value those
things and how can you really trust them
how can you trust anything that they say
you know so you know these are I mean
that’s the whole point of engaging in
discussion is you build it on a premise
that you can trust what the other person
is asserting or what they’re saying but
when you’re dealing with people to just
engage in lies and fraud and are
intentionally trying to mislead or
confuse you or others you know that like
why even engage right so you know this
is this is it we’re moving into an era
where everybody has to take personal
responsibility they have to take control
over their own choices and you just if
you’re gonna trust third parties you’re
gonna get completely screwed like it’s
just a matter of time and so hey don’t
trust verify and that’s a cypherpunk
philosophy and foundation that we built
our entire community on the
so many different tools we’ve got we’ve
got so many different choices and when
we have more choices we’re generally
wealthier because we can make some you
know we can choose different ways to
accomplish the means or the accomplish
the things that we want to get done and
you know for some people that’s
protecting their assets for other people
that’s buying copies or whatever you
know so let’s let’s let the you know I
love that we have all this financial
innovation happening and it’s it’s great
and I’m I’m just very grateful that you
you’re taking the time to do your show
and and talk about all these things and
help educate the new people – well thank
you Tracy