In the US is the US / China trade war
having any impact on sentiment?
Yeah over at the end of August with all the volatility I think everybody just
wanted to go home and take a nap. And so my suspicion is that if all the fund
managers are exhausted the CEOs are
exhausted too and what that means is I
think all projects have been put on hold. And you probably start to see some of
that negative implications when
people report their third quarter.
So it will be negative for stock
markets?
Yeah I think that the third quarter is
going to be brutal for industrial companies and what we’re having now is if you look
at the PMIs which is the surveys done
of CEOs there’s a manufacturing PMI and
then there’s a servicing PMI, both are
down significantly but the manufacturing
PMI is below 50 in the United States. It’s actually below 50, as far as I can
tell, for every country on the
planet. And so where I think we are today is
we’re in a global industrial recession. There have been two like this before in the
last ten years and they never caused the
recession and so the real question that
people should be asking is is this one
different? And is that going to lead to a
global recession or not? And I don’t have a strong feeling one way or the other but
certainly the data points that
you’ll get when people report their third
quarter numbers I think are going to
be quite negative.
Are there any winners to the us-china trade war?
Well if they all reach a deal there’s a winner! My
suspicion and I certainly wouldn’t stake
my life on this, is that there’s not going
to be no resolution for the trade war. There might be a window-dressing
deal but the world is going through a
very interesting change in that you’re
developing two different supply chains
for technology. There’ll be the Asia
supply chain and there’s going to be the
the Western supply chain and there’s not
going to be much trade between the two. And I find it hard to believe that China’s
going to give up on taking
intellectual property that they have, and
so there’s not really any deal to do.They might call a truce, but
that’s about the best you’re gonna get.