Hello everyone this is adam meister the
bitcoinmeister the disrupt meister welcome to this week in bitcoin this
year in bitcoin today is December the 27th
2019 strong hand bitcoin is next Bitcoin in motion
offended by selling conviction oh we had it unconscious cannibal what a year it
has been we’ve been relentless we’ve all been
unique beasts hello my elite friends welcome to the final this week in
Bitcoin show of this beautiful year guy Swann is here
rocky Palumbo is here Gabriel Devine is here pound that like button everybody
spread the word we’re there’s so much to cover today so we’re going to do
highlights of the year some predictions are next year some news oh it’s going to
be fun let’s start it off on the technical tip with guy Swan to tell you
sent me all this information about technical highlights of this year leave
it all out there tell the people about snore and lightning what happened this
year with that stuff okay so and this is this is one of my favorite things about
bear markets that I’ve come to love over the years over the many years in Bitcoin
it was just that like everything gets quiet and so much stuff gets done this
has been particularly just for lightning and the idea of like smart contract
functionality and the ability to build like streamlined very reliable layer 2
technology lightning obviously being the the obvious one but just just in a very
broad sense of what we can do with Bitcoin as a layer 1 and like layer 2
and layer 3 networks to build on top of this has been amazing
I mean lightning went from like I I originally I set up my first lightning
node in I think it was June of last year so it was a handful of
after it had finally been released on main net when everything was just kind
of exploding everybody was opening channels nobody had any idea what was
going on but everybody’s having fun because it was a new toy to play with
and but it wasn’t usable you couldn’t really do much with it and it wasn’t
really implemented anywhere and I mean it was all painfully painfully beta
software and this year it has just completely changed the game and it’s
been it’s been mostly developments that have happened in the background and one
thing that I’m just so excited about that I was really surprised actually
happened this year which it I mean I think it’s like two weeks old now that
it got it’s live in the sea lightning and I think it’s live on all of I think
it’s live on L&D and async now if I’m not mistaken but amps which are
multipath payments one of the biggest limitations of
lightning networks so far has been that when you open a channel you can only
send you can open up multiple channels but you can only send a payment over a
single channel so like the way these little contracts work is I can open up
three $100 contracts and I’ve got $300 worth of what the Bitcoin on the
Lightning Network but I can only send a max payment of $100 just because there’s
not an easy way to pull payments to to block payments across multiple pads at
the same time and now that is that is actually live I didn’t think we would
get it this soon it was kind of like real quiet as to what was going on with
it and then it was just seemed like it was released and that’s super exciting
because it just means that when you start looking at lightning now you don’t
have to think about channels you don’t have to like all of the important like
really hardcore stuff it’s happening is moving into the background it’s starting
to disappear you will see one balance it will be your lightning balance and you
can either spend all of it or you can spend a tiny amount of it and you don’t
have to care or think about what’s happening and that’s where most of the
development has been loop in and loop are another huge that that happens
around midway through this year that was another huge thing just in usability
because if there’s ever a problem with a route being available or let’s say
you’re using a lightning wallet and you want to pay a Bitcoin invoice like the
service you’re using doesn’t use Bitcoin or excuse me doesn’t have lightning
implemented like there’s a horrible user experience to let get a Bitcoin invoice
or a lightning and voice in voice I have to go to a different wallet for each one
yeah that’s terrible but there’s no reason that those things can’t work
together you just have to figure out how to do what it’s really conceptually a
simple thing atomic swap between Bitcoin and lightning and it’s a lightning
service that’s just available on the network and that’s how you loop in loop
out you can send money to refund like a light to recharge a lightning wallet
that’s how I am that’s how I send payments like I’ve been using the breeze
wallet which is my favorite right now of the handful that you can get on iOS but
I use it all the time I use it for of fold I use it too they were having like
a 20% SATs back on Starbucks not too long ago and I was good lord I was
buying way too much coffee way too much overpriced coffee to get
the stats back for that one bit refill another huge one just because really
gift cards have been kind of the key thing there but I’ve been using Lupin
and loop out to refill stuff from like a Bitcoin balance and then there’s another
wallet called moon in you you in it’s actually using that as like as the main
function of the wallet and you can you can pay lightning invoices by sending
Bitcoin to an atomic swap into lightning so so you’re using loop in and it’s just
it’s just so fascinating to see these they’re still like little pieces of it
and it’s still kind of spread out but once we have a a single wallet that
begins to integrate all of these things since each one of these individually is
kind of trying a different route and specializing on making a different
one of these tools work it’s so clear it’s so clear that we are a mere months
away from somebody just dropping a wallet it has no idea that the user
never has a clue that they’re using either lightning or Bitcoin and it’s
entirely seamless like we’re way closer to that than I thought we were and
that’s just one been one of the craziest things to me that all of the major tools
that needed to get us there are here like we’re not really waiting for
anything else there’s a lot of streamlining to do and a lot of
mitigating of like you know payment failures and stuff to do but for the
most part all the tools are here um he can be cleaned up neutrino that’s this
one of the best things neutrino has been a huge huge boost in the speed of having
a mobile wallet um and that actually just got a really big efficiency boost
not too long ago I think it was only like a month or so ago um but it’s
basically a way to a privately keep track of all the blocks that your
relative payments the the payments that relate to you are in without having to
give up your privacy like mobile wallets light wallets have always been a
disaster for privacy and neutrino basically solves that without having to
without having to give the huge straight off of running a whole friggin node on
your phone which is obviously a nightmare and I think I think the the
headers the way neutrinos um stuff is I think breeze is taken like I guess 20
Meg’s of data I think to get that to get that boost and if I don’t open it for
like a week or two it takes like a couple of seconds to sync and that’s it
that’s the trade-off to get privacy on in your in your lightning in your
relative like lightning channels and stuff in a mobile wallet now and that
happened this year like like that was a year ago
not possible dude you have open this show the exact way I want man
you laid it down the people want to hear about the technical stuff baby now you
jumped around something a little bit here yep and I’m gonna ask you a
straight-up quite and I’m gonna ask the other gamers the other just wanted to
speak about this too you’ve inspired them all I’m sure uh this is it’s just
kind of a vague statement though real lightning be ready for primetime in 2020
you made an illusion that it’s just a matter of time before there’s a wallet
that you won’t even know what the heck that you’re even using lightning is this
the year of lightning coming up it’s hard to say if like what the definition
of quote-unquote prime time is but yes I think we will see a wallet I think we’ll
see software where the user doesn’t really have to care at all what’s
happening in the back end they don’t have to know what’s happening and that
there is a single experience of Bitcoin whether they’re using lightning or
Bitcoin I think there are too many minds working on it and the tools are already
here yes short answer yeah all right Gabriel you want to say something baby
hi everyone rocky thanks for your summation I got a question for you I’m
rocky I didn’t introduce myself what’s up guys glad to be on the show I gender
a link to below they’re all linked to below pound that like when Gabriel sorry
okay thank you so much for that you know it’s it’s become the as the technology
proliferate s– it becomes impossible for any one person to like to keep up on
all the details like with every like area of Bitcoin development each one
continues along the path I mean yeah sometimes you close up and you’ve just
finished up a project for example cyber grated witness but even that like has
versioning now and they’re you know they come out with new sort of developments
on top of it but something like you know the signature paradigms and it’s kind of
very additive especially with bitcoins very strong ethos of soft Forks in other
words you never obviate things from the past and you only add
them on and you never hard fork so that you know people can people aren’t forked
off against their will like in every other you know fake coin basically so
well with Bitcoin we have an ever proliferating you know fields of
Technology and so one of the things that I’ve been really focusing on as far as
lightning is on the usability side actually it’s been great to see some
really good UX and developments and strides being made in in in the in the
industry in general guys like Jack Mallory’s really focused on it making
great-looking and easily usable on the front end but one of the really major
usability hurdles with lightning is the capacity question and so basically and
the really big one that I’m personally focused on is the inbound capacity what
this is is when when lightning was first evolved basically you had to put Bitcoin
onto the Lightning Network in order to receive Bitcoin you had to pay to get
paid and there are some private solutions being used now and there I
looked I was doing some research several months ago not that long ago middle of
the year and I found that they seemed relatively expensive and but it was good
to see that some strides were being made that’s usually how it goes with new tech
you know private players come in they charge a lot because it’s the first
examples and I see that as one a major maybe the biggest hurdle in general
because like there’s this dream of like everybody just can use lightning and
there’s instant payments flying back and forth everywhere and anybody you know
like a farmer who’s got a tiny feel the turnips in Ghana can just jump online
with their smartphone they’re you know they’re $20 smartphone and get a
lightning wallet and get paid for turnips well that’s not really possible
right now because you have it’s it’s the chicken there you know yeah catch-22 you
have to have Bitcoin before you can get Bitcoin so what’s the latest can you
give us an update perhaps and you’ll it the latest inbound
capacity solutions out there yeah so that’s where that’s where loop in loop
out and then splice in splice out come into play
and those are technologies that just basically hide the fact that you’re
you’re stashing away inside of a normal Bitcoin transaction and update to
changing the balances in your lightning wallet so in the in the short term you’d
have a slightly higher fee to get additional capacity into your channel
and that’s where we’re that’s where it’s like crazy exciting to talk about like
the the ability to aggregate fees over the Lightning Network to like maybe do
sorts of transactions like this in aggregating with a lot of other people
making transactions at the same time and that’s something that I think will be
far more it’ll just be a simpler process once we have Schnoor signatures but
that’s still probably a year away I hope that we see we see essentially the
network working towards activation on Schnoor because that’ll be a huge
improvement for exactly that sort of stuff but it’s about hiding that the
fact that you do have to change channel capacity like you’re talking about on
the fly and you would need a Bitcoin transaction to do it so it’s in making
sure using your existing your existing lightning presence to help pay for the
fee and aggregating transaction with many other channels or payments that are
happening at the same time and then also is the idea of an LSP which this is just
really exciting to me from the concept of building a kind of a global and very
open market around making this easy for people like breeze is one that I would
consider they’re kind of like really focusing roi shine field is really
focusing on that concept it specifically in offering up having liquidity
available to people in order to have people connect to their
nodes so that they have a very strong presence there’s this really strong
market incentive to exempt to solve that exact problem and those are exactly the
sorts of services that a I mean imagine like the Apple Store
imagine if they’re a imagine a future where the Lightning network is
ubiquitous let’s say they’ve got channels with their customers they’re
gonna aggregate everybody opening and closing channels at the same time and
they’re going to be able to offer they’re probably gonna be about all for
the fee as a loss leader just to keep people connected to their store but that
aside there’s these are all those those things that I mentioned are specifically
those tools that make that vastly easier and make a really open and
permissionless market to offering up liquidity on behalf of the user already
which is like something like breeze is doing Jack malar said that if they
purchase over Olympus that he’s going to I think match what they buy if I’m not
mistaken but all of them are coming up with a lot of different methods in fact
there’s four or five that are being tested out right now that I know of and
I think we’ll just see which one the market I finds most sustainable and
we’ve got this global open market to just kind of test all all the different
methods so I think there’s a lot happening specifically around that
hurdle and I think 2020 we’re gonna start seeing a standard develop on the
best solution very cool so would you say it sounds to me like we’re about
eighteen months out at the least of like a really seamless a hundred percent
smooth cheap on board for totally new lightning and Bitcoin user simultaneous
receipt a bit like you get paid for your for your labor or something first time
zero balance lightning wallet pay a smallish fee to open your very first
channel the very first time and then pay hardly anything after that maybe 18
months to 24 I would have said I would have agreed with you two months ago
um but with what I’ve seen in the last two months with Olympus Jack Mallory
Olympus and usher and then spark swap like a good friend of mine in the
Raleigh Bitcoin meetup made a video of doing a spark swap from a debit card one
sent to a to a lightning channel and Brees is one of those another ones that
you can just open up immediately and you have a couple of I think you wait a
couple of minutes for the confirmation but then Jack Mallory Olympus just
dropped and you’re it you’re in seconds seconds from debit card purchase two in
a lightning channel because they use something called a turbo channel where
you can just automatically start updating before it even confirms because
you’re already holding the the insurance part of the contract so it doesn’t
really matter you can just go ahead and start doing business yeah you’re already
sending the transactions back and forth exactly you wrote a commitment already
to at the opening so why not just keep updating it and I don’t think we’re that
far away I would have agreed with you two months ago but with a couple of
things that I have seen I think we’re closer than that all right dudes let
rocky you’ve been chopping at the bit there get in on this man get in on this
lightning Network discussion well I would have to agree that the Lightning
network is the big star of 2019 in the Bitcoin world some of the updates I’ve
been following with lightning are the atomic swaps the l2 which is basically
just a complete update to lightning channel factories dual funded channels
Sphinx which is a way to send in lightning without an invoice rendezvous
routing trampoline payments turbo channels watchtowers splicing amps and
submarine swaps so and you know this is you know these improvements are just
going to make lightning you know the the the way to transact in in Bitcoin and
I’ve been running a lightning node since February of this year and I did have a
couple of routing issues when I first got it started up I’m not really sure if
it was because of the network was so new back then or if it was
because I didn’t have things set up quite right because I turned off the
autopilot cuz I wanted to play with the settings myself to learn more about it
right so but just a few months after that I would say for the past seven
months maybe eight months I haven’t had any robbing issues just every payment
goes through instantly dude geez you’re what the main wallet you use sorry I’m
using the ride the lightning interface the web interface with a lightning note
on the Raspberry Pi I’m using R as pie blitz all right rocky my question is for
prediction it since 2019 has been a very good year for lightning is this is 2020
gonna be a beer year is this gonna be you guys are talking some technical
sophistication there is it going to be brought down to the regular man’s level
in 2020 year we’re gonna have to wait a little bit longer
rocky well I think you know 2019 was pretty good for Bitcoin right the price
is almost double what it was on January 1st 2019 so that’s a pretty good year I
think to 2020 is going to be better for Bitcoin than 2019 but I think 2021 will
be much better than 2020 I think just good things are coming just strong hand
be patient it’s all coming all right now one thing that Gabriel you started
talking and and before we leave rocky do you have any other highlights of the
year that you wanted to mention that are outside of Lightning Network
um no not really Lightning was like my topic my main topic for you know 2019 I
think guy kind of stole the show on that but he did a great job I agree with
everything he said that’s awesome yeah that was frickin awesome found out like
bump for lightning all right Gabriel T you probably had other highlights you
wanted to mention from 2019 you know rocky actually just mentioned
it which is the the price is proving a lot of the stock to flow people to have
been correcting their predictions you know when the bear
market hit in 2018 people were saying oh you know this is you know we’re gonna so
we’re gonna be in a bear market a long time or people were in denial and they
were saying oh we’re gonna go up again in 2018 and we’re following a really
closely to the havening schedule it’s actually quite stunning to have seen
this four-year cycle play out after you know the very first cycle when things
were spinning up you can’t really compare the beginning of that curve but
um the second and third cycles have been really similar the having the first
having in 2012 happened during a bit of a bear market 2013 saw two big bull
pushes followed by a long you know not a long followed by a bear market in 2014
people are forgetting that 2015 even though there was a lot of contentious
talking there were rage quits by obviously nefarious devs that you know
came straight out of you know Western countries three-letter agencies and it
was really you know obvious to a lot of us that what was going on and they were
trying to attack it it failed and 2015 was actually a bull market it was very
similar to this year you know things started off looking at the chart now
things things bottomed out right at the beginning of 2015 around 180 dollars and
things ended up the year at a real high in the 400s I mean so that was actually
you know a bigger well that’s a you know similar move to this year 100 ish
percent maybe a little more actually but you know the the happenings of course
are faster than every four years but you know I think that’s a really big story
this year is bitcoins recovery from a bear market where a lot of more trolls
were coming out of the woodwork saying oh you’re your project is finally over
and those voices have gone very quiet for a good reason
the thing is 11 years old and shows no signs of stopping it’s very
steady it’s on this course of adoption and the tech is amazing other projects
that many people were predicting would overtake Bitcoin are continuing their
bear markets especially when looked at against Bitcoin
I mean aetherium it it’s really anybody who has technical expertise now is
really rethinking their opinions about the theorem if they were bullish and as
they’re as they’re starting to understand well maybe my understanding
of base technology layers was worse than I thought because it’s the the dangers
of centralization and and poor planning are really starting to reap the harvest
over there you know more even more centralized projects are not doing great
in the market for all the reasons that we’ve been explaining for the past six
seven years so that’s a really big story and then to follow up on something guy
said about just the base tech I mean he mentioned taproot and and Shanor
signatures and all these things that are have been developed and and really were
a lot of those kinks and wrinkles have been worked out as the pips have been
standardized and now we’re in like roadmap territory which is always like
you know extremely what do I want to say extremely like hopeful and optimistic
because everyone’s we’ve already figured out the math we’ve already got the
proofs literally you know I mean guys like gregory maxwell and adam back
laying out the mathematical proofs that informed the bits you know design and
now the road map territory and like like like I said 2020 these things are
actually going to be coming out and it’s quite interesting to see that and I
think that I’m something that Andreas Antonopoulos has been talking about a
long time which is sort of what’s the word for it
rigid no rigidify pation i know the word ossification the ossification of the
protocol I do I think I agree that it’s relatively never
and things have been early enough and slow enough that we’ve been able to make
these extra extreme upgrades and changes not changes as a protocol but additions
to the protocol such as segregated witness two years ago and you know
taproot and and and more signatures these are quite very low-level additions
to the protocol I have a feeling that this next wave it’s going to be another
three years of upgrades to the base protocol this may be the last wave of
major additions to the protocol we might not have the freedom to do that because
the the system would be so large and at some point that the developers will
decide okay this is version 1.0 and I think maybe around that point we might
not see any large you know major additions to the protocol and that’s for
good reason the problems with Bitcoin or pain Poets Corner Koyuk cases edge cases
major bugs I mean transaction malleability was a
terrible bug and the the devs were working really hard on that for six
years and they came up with a solution to it and it frickin fixed it so and and
the next problem is way too much trackability
we’ve got private companies you know basically basing their business models
on the fact that bitcoin has traceable transactions and that’s you know the
next big push is these you know confidential transactions in different
ways to obscure the Providence of transaction history and that’s you know
that’s just another sort of bug and the protocol good money
he can’t be traceable that’s why cash was so useful for so long and you know
that was determined very sagely by you know a court in scotland in the 18th
century and then these type of things are getting ironed out and once they’re
all ironed out editions after that will be sort of gravy so it’s a really
amazing time to see the the the protocols solidifying around this set
suite of features and technologies alright let’s move on to a very specific
thing that was alluded – you guys Juan is the having priced in no I don’t think there’s any possible
way for it to be pricing I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately because
there’s been a lot of Twitter push back against stock to flow recently which I
don’t quite know why like in the last couple of weeks I’ve been seeing it
constantly um but uh I think no matter what even if you even if you talked
about it being priced in there’s there’s two things that priced in has to account
for one is that the supply isn’t what it will be when we get to that point and be
the enormous price of time so if it is priced in well then it’s priced in at
the one-year discount to getting there and and the associated risks with that
but regardless of that no I don’t think so I don’t think anybody even really
knows like the the portion of the community is aware of the whole stock of
low thing is so itty-bitty like it is a tiny corner of Bitcoin
Twitter that actually even knows about this thing and the idea that it’s priced
in like that the market is already going to have the price that it’s supposed to
be at that time like worked out and sorted today I think is just kind of pretending pretending that markets are
some perfect theoretical universe rather than the the crazy social beast that it
is but no no the short answer is absolutely not yeah I think that’s I
think know is everybody agrees on that but I think it’s like a social attack
almost these people that keep bringing up or they’re just bored and there’s
nothing else to talk about I I don’t know
rocky do you have any thoughts on on that aspect of the having at all and
you’ve got some screen shares you’ve got some topics you wanted to bring up too
I wanted you to do that now well about the having I don’t think it’s priced in
either a lot of the you know the price action depends on traders and traders
are too busy trading to even concern themselves with the technical aspects of
Bitcoin but what I think the having does is is really simple people like to
complicate this way too much I think you have the having and what it does is
supports the price going up over the next four years and then you have
another having rinse and repeat and that’s all it is
and this is it’s really just that simple and by the way Gabriel said that
basically said that also its cyclical we’re repeating 2015 again I it’s to
210,000 block theory that the price and then with science more than theory the
price if any taught any point time you go back to hundred ten thousand blocks
it’s worth more than it was back then in terms of Fiat so this thing if it really
ball might boil down to the the math of it all that it’s all gonna always be
cyclical like this who knows the pattern hasn’t been broken yet
all right now yeah we were talking about lightning before and of course the be
cash people always said that lightning would never work so what’s up with this
what’s up with your feet as well I would like to know what the block size limit
is on be cash does anybody know guy or Gabriel you
know what it is isn’t it eight right now I believe it was a 13 for a while but I
don’t know if it ever actually happened because they they had to fix the
emergency difficulty I mean the the new most recent the DAA the difficulty
adjustment algorithm that replaced the other broken algorithm that I used and
they had to fix that recently but I don’t know if they did it actually did
the block size increase at the same time I mean well according to this article it
did go to 32 Meg’s on may 2018 or 2018 yes yes
it says – right here it says today because that happened even before bsv
that’s right yeah yes 32 Meg’s all right so that’s May of 2018 this
article came out a few months ago September of this year and it took it
was based on interviewing a B CH dev this this Emery guy and he said in a
reddit post that the be cash miners are unwilling to mind blocks bigger than two
Meg’s and when this article first came out that there was a direct quote from
him that where he said if they mined too many blocks that were you know 2 Meg’s
are bigger that the nodes would trip over themselves so basically saying that
it would take too long to propagate the blocks across the network and you could
have a lot of you know orphan blocks and what-have-you which is of course really
bad for the for the network and it promotes mining centralization so I
don’t know why but for some reason that quote was taken out of this article but
if you did read this in September when it first came out it was there I saw it
I read it and then there were some quotes from Roger veer you know he had
to put his two cents in here and he was asked if Bitcoin cash truly had this 2
Meg limit and of course he didn’t really give a direct answer yes or no answer he
you know he talked about how he’s working with these companies I’m already
working directly with payment companies that expect to reach close to 100
transactions per second with a hundred million plus users around the world
if bch had this 2 Meg limit they wouldn’t be interested so he didn’t
really answer the question what he answered was these companies wouldn’t be
interested if they did but not if it did or not right do you see the difference
and and kind of danced around the question right and so then down here in
his conclusion he referred to he’s referring to Bitcoin here as having a 1
Meg block limit right which I don’t know hasn’t had that since you know segment
got put in and what the oddest of 2017 so two and a half years it hasn’t had a
1 Meg limit and I go to like Sundance here yeah yeah if you go to Sundance
here you could see the Meg’s the block size here in megabytes you know because
it’s weighted now but this is would be their megabyte equivalent point 1.3 yeah
what I say okay yeah going dance Cohen dance so you can see that the most of
the blocks here are well over a Meg in fact there was a tweet from I think it
was yeah the for Satoshi’s these guys do a lot of good tweets if you’re on
Twitter you really should follow these guys they got a sample here that they
tweeted I think it was last week where you could see all these blocks how big
they are here’s a 1.6 well another 1.6 1.4 these are all in a row right 1.6 1.8
another 1.8 surrounding a 1.7 and following up with a 2.3 3 right okay all
right Roger so why are you still talking about Bitcoin having a 1 Meg block size
limit and actually the block size limit in Bitcoin right now is actually 4 Meg’s
it’s just with the current version of seg wit it can only make the blocks so
big and still full the old blocks that they’re you know that they’re one make
you know cuz it has to be backwards compatible because that’s a soft fork
now the next version of say of segue with snore signatures will be able to go
up to 4 Meg blocks and still feel the still fool the old nodes that they’re
just 1 Meg you know so you got to have that backwards compatibility to be a
soft work so so he goes on to say here that the B
cache block size restriction isn’t true all right what what what that one dev
was talking about that if they mind blocks over 2 Meg’s the nose would trip
over themselves well I don’t know where he’s getting this information from
because the information that I see it shows that it is true ok so this is the
Joe Howe or empal yeah why are we talking about this scammer I’m not sure
what the road for years why do you care because Adam asked me about it before
the show well that Rocky’s been wanting to talk
about this be casting for a while so if the Year in Review
argument well there’s there’s one point where I’m gonna get at to when he’s done
but it’s it’s important one to continue with this is the one time to get it out
bad this is the one because what’s gonna happen is the question is what’s gonna
happen with their having what what will the will it’s only is it gonna die when
they have they’re happy because they’re having to having next year also is it in
May to or when is it you like well that’s a good question it’s beforehand
it is it is gonna be beforehand at this point if I if I’m not mistaken and that
would help the people you know who Connie you know kind of blindly follow
you know king of the trolls and maybe might shed a little light on you know
what he’s saying you can’t just take it as a matter of fact you got to do your
own research right this is what i’m doing i’m showing my research to combat
what he said in that article okay so that’s what i’m doing here so let’s look
at the data so here is a representation over the past year of the men pull in
the b CH you can see how pitiful you know the transaction amounts are here
they’re just so tiny their average block is less than one
quarter of one Meg on average right so there’s this tiny blocks but every once
in a while their mental does get backed up but they’ve got a 32 Meg which I just
showed right over here I just showed that they got a 32 Meg block size so and
Roger says it’s not true that they have a 2 Meg
so if we zoom in on this here you could see I’ve got to wait for it to propagate
here there you go so if you see it got backed up to 19 and a half Meg’s here
and it took like 279 blocks to clear that well I don’t know what kind of math
king of the trolls uses but the math I’ve learned in the fourth grade tells
me that if you have a 32 Meg block and you’re backed up 19 Meg’s you could do
that in one block not 279 right so um here’s hey here’s something really funny
about that and and I was thinking about with lightning I was going back through
because lightning has become vastly more usable this this year then like at the
beginning of the year I wasn’t using it for real payments like I was using it to
play with it and by the way this RTL um thing that
you were talking about the ride the lightning I had not seen this this is
like the coolest looking thing ever so I’m gonna try this out thank you for
mentioning that um yes so lightning has literally become
usable this year and I have just started using it and have just kind of stopped
like like originally I remember my sentiment change is that when a payment
happened I would be really excited because it was like oh my god a
lightning payment worked I’m so excited and now I’m so used to it working that
when something goes wrong I’m like oh crap that’s right
this is still lightning and sometimes things don’t work perfectly um but I’ve
had like with all those tools and technologies that we talked about with
like loop in loop out splice in amps all of these and leanin being able to lean
on the Bitcoin network when something goes wrong right now right now I have
about a 1 in 20 payment failure rate Parker Lewis has a wonderful series I’m
not sure if you guys have listened to or read it on unchain capital of the
unchain capital blog called gradually than slowly and there’s once one article
that he talks about said bitcoin is not too slow and he talks about the
discovery of digital scarcity being a zero to one
invention whereas payments are a 1/2 n we can we can forever make incremental
improvements to it and right now at this stage with hardly any of these tools
actually in play I have a 1 in 22 needing to resort to an own chain
payment when lightning fails which means I essentially have a 20 X increase in my
block size capacity as far as my individual use of Bitcoin
that is right now when everything is still vastly that still needs to go to
the actual user side like the the EZ user experience side and implement all
of these tools together I would not be surprised it off we could double that or
more in the next five or six months as far as like the usable software that
means though that if everyone would could use it just at the stage that it’s
in we have the equivalent of 40 mega byte blocks on Bitcoin we have the
equivalent of our current block size but only needing a payment only needing an
on chain transaction for one out of every 20 in order to mitigate when
something goes wrong or when we need more liquidity or we need inbound
capacity or anything like that if my experience is something that can be
applied to every one that we’ve got essentially a 40 megabyte block size and
no nodes are tripping over anything and I don’t know that’s just a it just shows
the the vast chasm between the engineering mindsets of Bitcoin cash and
Bitcoin in my opinion yeah and the five percent failure rate or reset rate is
like really high compared to what it will be it’s gonna be way under 1% it’ll
be you know maybe half a percent or something I could see would be a like
one in 200 so then then you’re talking about another 10x capacity like a
hundred x from here who is like around the corner for sure and then and then
once you have like machine-to-machine payments
it’ll be millions of times higher you know they’ll be going back and forth
sending these little blips of data zillions of times and you’ll have you
know but way way more than some stupid visa well that’s what
I’m that’s what I meant by ready for primetime – I mean getting the failure
rate up to a very non noticeable level which is we were saying we said right
now it’s one in twenty years I mean that’s that’s that’s my that’s my
personal experience but the funny thing is when you implement things like loop
in and loop out or splice and splice out has like in the background of your app
is that your payment would go through without you knowing that you had to
resort to an on chain payment so your experience would never see a failure but
your app would simply have to jump out and do an own transaction one at every
20 to make up for when lightning couldn’t fill the bill essentially okay
all right so now we’ve brought up the bean cache altcoin which is a way to
transition to an altcoin question and I have for Gabriel Devine about the what’s
to come in 2020 will Libra happened in 2020
Gabriel Deva I don’t think so no I don’t think that’s gonna happen there’s way
too many roadblocks and this is like a whole reason why you know bitcoins
decentralized then nobody else is able to do anything
I don’t think Libra is actually gonna ever happen ever no that’s a big one
that’s okay I can agree with that maybe yeah I I don’t think I think that they
might try to launch a different type of stable coin more similar to the existing
ones but no I don’t I don’t think Libra I do think that they could very well
like flesh out their sort of payment rail you know their normal fiat payment
rail a lot more and try to compete with Apple and the other players in the space
but that space is getting really very competitive and fees are plunging which
is great so you know the more competition the better and then
eventually when you just swap out the bottom layer it’s gonna be you know
ridiculously cheap the Lightning fees are going to be insanely cheap when when
that is you know extremely normal for everybody but you know as far as
predictions I this is a good time maybe to jump into
my thoughts about the 20s yes and how it relates to Bitcoin if I may yes I think
that that you guys we’ve been talking and I think I love this panel
everybody’s you know really on point here this is terrific you guys are
terrific I love it and you guys I you know haven’t said anything I thought was
dumb which is really awesome he said really fucking smart things this is my
language you said you said really highly highly intelligent things I really agree
with guys opinions that he was expressing about the havening being
priced in rocky as well it’s it’s not priced in there’s too many unknowns
that’s my diagnosis about why it’s not priced in and I don’t mean that in the
sense of all traders don’t know what’s the price is gonna do no no I’m talking
about macro events that directly affect energy production around the world in
various ways you know that’s from whether we’re in the middle of the
strongest solar minimum that anybody alive has ever seen this is something
more along the lines of the 19th century maunder minimum or even go back 400
years or 2,000 years to the grand solar minimums that nipped entire empires in
the bud this is a this is a highly volatile time where we’re seeing massive
farming failures we’re seeing the typical increase in pestilence where
we’ve got a massive outbreak of swine flu or swine fever in China that’s
causing that caused this year the the pork prices have are up 130 percent it’s
a massive situation where you know for example President Trump is using that as
leverage in his trade negotiations with China because they need our pork or not
our pork but the pork of the United States this is a real a time of a huge
upheavals in societies we’re seeing the the rise of nationalistic
tendencies in the reaction to the global istic politics of the past three four or
five decades even longer to ten decades I would say and the Federal Reserve is
being what do I want to say scrutinize yeah it’s being scrutinized by
politicians in the United States to a greater degree than ever before
especially the Trump administration the level of uncertainties ahead is much
higher than we’ve ever seen in anybody’s life tying including the greatest
generators generation are all dead the world war ii generation the people
the very oldest members of our of the population in their 90’s hundreds
hundred and ten these people haven’t even seen the type of volatility that we
are going into and we’ve seen over the past even five years so and i mean that
in the positive sense to i’ve just mentioned some negatives you know hi hi
a weather dislocations populations getting dislocated food insecurity but
also we’ve got the possible secret technology releases ahead this is the
woowoo subject very few people talk about this in you know mainstream media
but we’ve got that we’re in a situation now where the navy this year released
three incredibly in like mind-blowing patents for free energy superconductor
and anti-gravity technology this is technology that’s been around for 80
years according to insider testimonies and that you know trump administration’s
propaganda arm were known as queuing on has been dropping all sorts of basically
pro-trump and pro military propaganda for three years and their predictions
have been very much on point i think it’s a legitimate propaganda arm where
they’re trying to promote the ideas of the trump administration as best they
can when I say legitimate I mean it’s
genuinely military insiders leaking information and attempting to influence
the populations view zone things and whether they’re accurate
or not I can’t say but I think it’s genuine military insiders behind it it’s
not a troll’ thing and they’re talking about extraterrestrials they’re talking
about you know all the secret technology and I think that is something that is
not also not priced in very very few traders are looking ahead to see how the
markets will be dislocated by a sudden release of new energy technology for
example in Bitcoin it’s uniquely suited actually to sudden technology increases
because of the difficulty adjustment it’s kind of insane what we might have
is an extremely fast you know difficulty period where one mining consortium sucks
up all the Bitcoin but only for two weeks
difficulty adjusts and you know then you’ve got say two or three more miners
that have got the new free energy tech but we’re talking about a say a five
million fold increase in energy efficiency and that’s something that
would dislocate the entire human society will be really intense
I think Bitcoin would definitely survive it but it would cause a lot of minor
upheaval it’s something that’s not priced in at all it’s Bitcoin would do
very well actually because many other markets would fail but Bitcoin would be
able to survive it this is something that you know people can’t aren’t
talking about and would affect mining really really directly and affect
Bitcoin price bitcoins price could actually surge in such a situation
because it becomes far more useful technologies I don’t know about the
secret technology whatever you want to whatever you want to call it remember
Gabriel does not represent the views of the show but it’s also when he says cuz
everybody loves it but we are entering a golden age and I am so excited you know
Gabriel at first said there’s a lot of uncertainty I bring all the uncertainty
bring it on and that’s what I have you also who knows what is gonna come and
yes if if also there was free energy or something you’ve been close to it it
wouldn’t want to be talking about Bitcoin the whole world would be just we
a completely new realm and that’s the promise of this new decade that is the
promise of the 2020s we the the technological sophistication it’s it’s
going a parabolic whatever you want to say through the stratosphere I am pumped
for this I I really am pumped for this and uh well I want that well guy you’re
about to say something and then I was gonna sock you so you and remember we
got a 10 more minutes we only got 10 minutes set to go oh ok I’ll try to be
quick um so I think I totally agreed that in the next couple of decades we’re
gonna see more change in how society and people are organized and which I think
we’ve actually seen the seeds of all of it I think we can already tell if we’re
if we’re looking very closely and kind of stepping back from the the
architectures that we’re used to looking at we can actually see what’s happening
um but in the next two years we will see a greater like more powerful shift in
how society is organized and we’ve ever seen in human history to be frank and
whether it’s funny that you bring up all of this uncertainty um because there’s a
piece that I read I believe I believe this is Hayek that focuses that stresses
this specifically it may be Hans Hermann Hop I can’t remember um but that money’s
money is a tool as a tool money is a hedge against uncertainty that’s as
being the most liquid good in the economy it’s where you put value when
you’re not sure what’s gonna happen and like if you put it in a chicken chickens
gonna rot if you put it in you know like any other all of the other goods do not
have the specifics the specific characteristics of money which make it
perfect for keeping value across time most specifically during incredible
uncertainty because we just don’t know what the future is going to hold and
sound money does that job better than anything else and I think all of that’s
other stuff aside the fact that we have Bitcoin as a tool if it continues to do
its job and continues to enforce the monetary policy that it has that that
alone we’ll create an explosion of wealth and
efficiency that we cannot understate in this conversation that there’s no real
possible way to explain what it will create because all we’re ever going to
see is it’ll be like sitting in the 1990s with the internet and going it’s
like oh yeah we’ll be able to listen to radio on a computer and it’s like well
no that’s not what the internet is going to do but yes that’s one teeny tiny
itty-bitty piece of the amazing explosion of wealth that’s going to come
from it so that’s a great point awesome point I want a rocky you’re I’m
gonna ask you a lot here your predictions they don’t have to be
earth-shattering is Libra actually gonna be happening and in a week we’ve got
proof of keys if you want to talk about a prediction for that to Rocky is yours
yeah that’s a lot pictures you know as far as predictions go I just I think
like I said before I think Bitcoin in 2020 is gonna be you know bigger better
and you know more of a price increase than 2019 and and lightning is going to
be have even more you know advances than it had in 2019 they’re just both going
to get much better basically but what Gabriel just said that was
awesome I got a I got to ask you do you have links I could hit you up for for
the the military patents absolutely yeah it’s very fishy patents by under an
unknown scientists name whose name was Salvatore a pie east which of course
means Savior nation’s Savior and you know this is this is a guy nobody’s ever
heard of before and of course oh he just magically comes out with three
incredible groundbreaking technologies one of the one detail about those
patents the Patent Office in the u.s. said what you guys are like relying on
science that is not proven so they went and they had a captain its Navy captain
these are Navy patents the Navy captain is on record he said he sent a letter
back and said all of these technologies are currently operable and they granted
the all right do you have DM is open on
Twitter I certainly do all of these dudes are linked to below I’m sorry if I
feel like I’m only got five minutes before I got like those Chanukah candles
it’s the sixth night and I’m cut off dead but rocky talked about for any
proof of keys thoughts because you’re a guy that really encourages people to be
responsible with their with their Bitcoin well we could bring down any
exchanges I mean that’s a big question well I hope not I don’t like people
losing their bitcoins but if it you know weeds out some of the weaker ones I
think that’s a good thing but you shouldn’t you don’t have your Bitcoin on
there I mean I know if you’re trading you need to have a certain amount on
there but if you’re just buying and let it sit there no you got to get your
Bitcoin off please please get your bitcoins off exchanges if you’re not
trading and and if you are trading keep the absolute minimum there you need
we’ll be talking about this in a week guys want your conclusion area and any
other key before we uh well yeah I you know I just like to do a plug for like a
minute I need okay so let me share a screen here so I just like people have
any questions about Bitcoin they should go to just learn Bitcoin calm and also I
want you to take note of this black square right here to click on here this
is a very important project here to help return 14.2 bitcoins to Pastor Phil this
is a guy who’s been in the Bitcoin for a very long time and you never had a lot
of money he was just adding small amounts of Bitcoin to his wallets over
the years and then he got hacked he got the he fell victim to what I believe was
a DNS hijacking attack and you could see me interview him here on this show on
the UK Bitcoin master show so you get a feel for who he is here you have all
these people endorsing him you know this is not a scam he really lost these coins
and you know if you could do a little donation to help him get his 14 coins
back that would be great he also lost 500
litecoins on that wallet and if you click here you could go to the tally
coin we could do a donation and I’d also just like to say if you don’t go to just
on your Bitcoin calm you could go to Bitcoin stolen comm and
that will take you to this website here and also you just read this a family
story this is friend wrote this story and it’s it’s really about a 5 10 minute
read at Max and you’ll see this guy he’s a living Saint he he served his country
in the in the military he married his high school sweetheart
you know he had a couple kids and then he rescued these these kids who have
these disabilities even adopted two of them he’s just a living Satan for this
to happen to him was just awful so if you could just donate anything to him at
all that’d be great all right control remember to be careful when you’re
clicking on things out there and just know what you’re doing when you’re don’t
move around stuff too much all right let guy your Gabriel your your conclusionary
thoughts will end with guy here and we got three minutes I’m randomly going to
throw out a prediction for the next cycle for the next after the next
euphoric peak of price I think we’re headed for a stable period of around 45
grand that might be 2021 to 2022 that’s my random prediction for the
early 20s price level all right and thank you both of you dudes and guys
lawn for being on guys 1 you will get the final we’re end gabriel’s linked to
below of course guy you get the last word baby alright rocky I’d say I know
that I’ve been around I’ve been in Bitcoin for a very long time and I know
that feelings that that really sucks 14 Bitcoin is a tough break – good lord
but yeah so but by the way if anybody doesn’t know I do the crypto economy
podcast with guy Swann and the main format of the show is like pretty much
every day I read some article or work one of the quintessential works like the
one I just rebooted actually just before Christmas was shelling out
the origins of money by Nick Sava so I’m trying to make every brilliant piece of
writing in the Bitcoin space into an audiobook so that everybody can just
consume all of Bitcoin in in audio but with a nice southern accent this is nice
it’s a nice other drawl that’s right but yeah I’m so excited about this year
I think 2019 has been an epic year of laying the groundwork to start putting
like we’ve basically got all of the all of the pieces like we’ve got the gear
we’ve got the piston we’ve got the the cast we’ve got everything that’s going
to make the engine and in the automobile and I think in the next next year in
particular but next two years we’re going to finally build the automobile
with this thing and I think I think it’s going to be an absolute game changer
we’re gonna see apps this year that literally just cannot exist on any other
platform they don’t make any economic sense or technical sense we’re going to
see things we’re going to see the social media equivalent to the social media to
the Internet we will see that to Bitcoin the ability to just interface with an
entire economic and financial network that isn’t completely permissionless and
where anyone just can openly create a new financial tool and and all that
groundwork is laid in the last the last pieces of that puzzle or getting put
together and I think 2020 is going to be a hell of a damn year and if it settles
at 40 to 50 thousand like Gabriel says I think that will be under priced dudes
that’s a great way to end the year happy new year everyone
Happy Hanukkah everyone real quick Rocky was Bitcoin stolen comm that was the URL
yes they go right to Phil’s donation site that is a classic trick and great
URL when this is all over with he gets all this Bitcoin you should sell that
URL I get a lot of money for it all right and our I just like to say if you
do watch that first video on that page it does explain like what happened to
him and so you can make sure it doesn’t
happen to you everyone should watch that video yeah that’s important all right
dudes that is it thank you very much panel
thank you very much everybody went out there happy new year new show every day
beyond Bitcoin is tomorrow Bitcoin Reb I will be on shabbat shalom’
i’m adam meister the bitcoinmeister disrupt meister subscribe the channel
like the video share this video go let your Hanukkah candles right now which i
am going to do see you all later bye bye happy Chanukah