(air whooshing) – [Jarratt] In this video,
we’re gonna demonstrate how Forex Source subscribers made money trading a sentiment shift
involving the Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaking this week. Now, the move we’re gonna be looking at is this one here to the downside on the Euro versus the
Canadian dollar pair, specifically interested in the
rally on the Canadian dollar, this is what the key
driver of this pair was. So let’s break this down, and see how you could have predicted and caught this move using
our market commentary. Now, just before we begin, don’t forget to hit that button to subscribe or follow, so that you’ll get notified every time we release a new video. So first of all, we need
to understand the context, or the baseline surrounding this currency before the move took place. Now, as I said the focus
was on the Canadian dollar, and every day we post something called the “Current Sentiment Drivers
Report” for each currency. And we did so for the Canadian dollar on the 21st of November
1st thing in the morning just after the London open. And this gives us the
baseline for the currency, and also the specific things, the specific type of breaking news that will move that currency at the time based on its context or its baseline. So what was the baseline? Well, essentially, the
market was concerned that the global risks,
were gonna cause the BoC to become a little bit more dovish, specifically the U.S./China
trade negotiations. And everyone was starting
to price in it that the probability of a rate cut
in January was increasing, it already got to 50%, and
it was rising a little bit over the last few weeks. Now, that was the context, so everyone was a bit worried about that. The future sentiment shift,
if you notice this point here, “Comments from BoC members will be key “to determine exactly how
much trade uncertainties “are influencing the rate outlook.” So they wanna see what these
bank members are saying in terms of how concerned they are, and bearing in mind the
market has already decided, it’s pretty much something
to be quite concerned about. So they just need to
see what the bank think, and that’s gonna influence
how they’re gonna move next. So that was the baseline, that was this the sentiment
shift we were looking for, some kind of comments
like that from BoC members that would kind of give the market a clue. Now, all we needed was
that trigger, right? That actual sentiment shift to occur. And of course, we had
the prime opportunity for this on the 21st, remember, this was on the 21st at 9:42
in the morning, UK time. And then at 1:40 in the
afternoon, that same day we had the Governor of Bank
of Canada himself, Poloz speaking, which is a prime opportunity to listen to his comments, because we knew they were going to be
market moving at this time, ’cause that’s what the
market’s focused on. So let’s go back to the terminal, and as you can see, at
14:15, UK time on the 21st Poloz made the comment that he believes, “We have monetary policy conditions “about right given the situation.” So he was a lot more positive than the market was expecting, he went kind of push back
against this little baseline. You can see a little the analysis here, kind of just talks about pushing back on recent comments from Wilkins, who was a little bit
more negative, et cetera. So the market saw this is a positive, this is a positive comment
in relation to that context, in relation to the base, this is the shift that we were looking for on that particular pair. And if we just go back to the move, you can see this is the candle here, the two o’clock candles here. And you can see each candle
has a 15 minute candle, so we if just go to
the three minute chart, gives us a better idea. This is kind of,
obviously, the initial move kind of came down, we wouldn’t
really have caught that. But this kind of price action in here, as it kind of sort of messed around for, maybe each one of these
cameras is three minutes. So there’s a good 30 minutes to an hour for you to digest, figure
out what Poloz has said, get the analysis, understand
that it’s a lot more positive than the market was expecting. And of course, you can see the move went all the way down here. Now, this moving total was about
70 pips from top to bottom, so there’s plenty of pips to be made. And as you can see
there was plenty of time to get into that trade as well, the key was understanding the baseline, knowing what to look for, and in recognizing that
trigger as it happened, and understanding how to trade it. Now, if you’re interested
in learning more about how our market commentary can help you interpret
news fundamental analysis into profitable trades like this, then click the link below,
and check out Forex Source. And of course, I’d like
to thank you for watching. Please post your questions
or comments below this video, because we do need them all, and we actually base our future videos on the things you asked for. (air whooshing)