I love when fear is at its highest and the
price is dumping, that is my hedge as a trader I don’t believe anyone can outperform Bitcoin
trading Had I just bough and held I would have been
doing a lot more poorly than my current trading Good luck trying to pick one flower out of
all the weed on Coinmarketcap What’s up, guys, I’m Giovanni. Welcome back
to our weekly crypto market show today with us we have Dan McDermitt, technical analyst
and YouTuber at the ChartGuys.com. And for the first time on our channel, financial analyst
and founder at a Standpoint Research, Ronnie Moas. Welcome, you guys. Ronnie, you have
always been very critical of technical analysis. In a tweet last year, you said that technical
analysis is a trap and that technical analysts will always find the chart helping them make
their case. So then you are technical analyst, what do you respond to that? I certainly understand it, especially when
you go on Twitter and you have a thousand different people using a thousand different
kinds of technical analysis. And there are a lot of people that will just change the
technical analysis to fit the view of what they’re looking for to happen. So I certainly
understand that viewpoint. I know for me personally, it’s always been about finding a happy place
on the spectrum. You have fundamental analysis here. You got technical analysis here. And
it’s never good to be completely on one end of the spectrum, in my opinion. So I find
that happy medium where I definitely am aware of fundamentals, but more so on the side of
technical analysis. I just know that for me personally, I’ve been using it for nine years.
I never use it to predict what is going to happen. I use it to set up my clear risk/reward
profile in every trade that I take. So I know I put myself in positions where the risk is
small, always a stop level set. And then I try and position myself where the reward ends
up being more profitable. And for me personally, it’s been working. I have results that show
me using technical analysis to be a trader has allowed me to outperform what I would
be doing as a fundamental trader. So it’s really a lot of experience. And you’re also
gonna find a lot of people on Twitter who don’t have that experience trying to use technical
analysis and it takes thousands and thousands of hours and a lot of practice to be able
to utilize it successfully, in my opinion. Ronnie, how do you comment on that? Well, my problem has always been with people
that are looking exclusively at a chart to make a decision. And I don’t believe anyone can outperform
Bitcoin trading. Bitcoin has gone from $100 to $10,000 in the
last few years. That’s 100x. I don’t know many people on Twitter who claim to be technical
analysts who made 100x on their money during the last few years trading. One recent example
I can give you is on the 17th of December, there were technical analysts warning of a
death cross on Bitcoin when we had $6,400. Ok, we jumped 60% since then to a month exactly
to the day, 60%. And there were people that got out of what may have been an opportunity
of a lifetime because they were scared out by the technical analysts that gave them this
false sell signal. So it’s OK to look at a chart, but you also
have to look at valuation and you have to look at fundamentals. And one thing that Dan
mentioned is that he does look at fundamentals and most technical analysts will not admit
that. And those are the people I have more of a problem with. There are people that claim
to be technical analysts, but they have no results to back it up. And I think most of
the people who make money using technical analysis are the people who are selling you
their buy and sell signals, but they’re probably not making that much money trading off of
those signals. And there are exceptions to every rule, I’m sure. Ronnie, how can you react to market movements
without technical analysis? Well, I usually, if I’m going to use technical
analysis, I’m usually taking the opposite side of the argument that the technical analysts
are making. So if I see a big green candle and I feel like putting a trade on, I’m going
to sell into that candle. And if I see a big red candle and everybody is jumping for the
exits, I’m probably going to add to my position. So if I look at technical analysis, it’s more
of a contrarian indicator as opposed to following everyone that’s looking at the same signals.
So, you know, the bottom line is we’ve had tens of thousands of candles on the Bitcoin
chart in the last few years. Half of them are green. Half of them are red. And we’re in the same spot on the Bitcoin
price that we were a few years ago. So good luck trying to find a pattern there. I can
look at one chart and Bitcoin looks overbought and then I can show you another chart and
it looks oversold. So you’re looking at the five minute chart, the weekly chart, the monthly
chart. There are very, very few people that can make money doing this. And people need
to understand that. And one more point that I would like to add is that I recommend that
people trade with 10 to 20% of their money, OK, but not off of technical analysis. When
you have a move from $6,400 to $10,500 that we had recently, you would be foolish not
to take 5 or 10 or 15% of the money off the table. We came down $800. You buy back what
you sold at $10,500. So I’m okay with trading. But you have to be very disciplined and you
have to know who you’re taking advice from. Do you agree that it was impossible to interpret
those green and red charts? Do you agree? So my response I agree with him on a lot of
things. Number one, having a core position, having a no touch position and then trading
around that, I like that a lot. I also agree with him trading contrary and using charts.
My favorite play is oversold bounce. And so I love when fear is the highest and I love
when the price is dumping and that’s my edge. As a trader, I perform really well on those
oversold bounces. As far as outperforming, he’s right. Most people are not going to be
outperforming the price of Bitcoin. I know for me personally from the time I took my
first trade ever in cryptocurrency May of 2017, had I just bought and held, I would
be doing a lot more poorly than my current trading and I’d be happy to provide results
to back that claim up. But it would be something along the lines of, you know, if I held Ethereum
for my first buy, I’d be up maybe 500-600% in the end. Right now, having traded for two
and a half years, it’s roughly 3000 to 3500%. So for me personally, again, there’s always
exceptions and I can actually agree with him. That’s not the most common result. But for
me, I’ve been dedicating tens of thousands of hours to this full time for 9+ years. So
with that being my goal every single day is to get better as a trader doing it full time
that it’s a scenario with the amount of volatility we’ve seen in the cryptocurrency space. It
has allowed me to take advantage of that volatility, buy the fear, sell the greed and come out
in front. That sounds pretty solid. But let’s get a
little bit more closer to your personal experience, if you’ll allow me to ask, what percentage
did you manage to get out of just technical analysis for you, Dan, and from fundamental
analysis from you, Ronnie, in the last year? I don’t keep track of my performance. I don’t
have time to, you know, keep a spreadsheet and track every time I went in and out of
Bitcoin. Bitcoin for me is buy and hold that on dips.
And I will check how I’m doing a couple of years from now when Bitcoin is probably trading
somewhere between 25 and 50 thousand dollars. I’m mostly on the same page. I don’t have
the last year off the top of my head. I have that rough figure from my first crypto trade
ever. Then I’ve been keeping track, but for me, it’s always fluctuating. Sometimes I’m
focusing more on stocks. You know, Tesla was going crazy recently. All my focus was on
Tesla. And then when Bitcoin starts going crazy, I start focusing on crypto. So it’s
always fluctuating my attention. And because of that, obviously the profit and loss is
fluctuating as well. But so far, green year every year, which is what my goal is, just
stay the course and looking forwards, as Ronnie says, I do believe based on a long term monthly
pattern that I’m watching on Bitcoin. I do believe that we’re going to see a tightening
range into the middle of the year. And I am looking at the more likely distant scenario
to be a bull break. And I do believe all time highs will be coming again. And with that
will come hype, euphoria and a whole lot of profits. We just reached a golden cross, which apparently
is a very bullish sign because the 50 day moving average line just intersected the 200
day moving average line. And the last time it happened, Bitcoin pumped 170%. So do you
guys expect these kind of gains to repeat themselves, Dan, first you? Well, it’s always possible for me that the
death cross that Ronnie mentioned and the golden cross, I don’t act on those signals.
Those are long term lagging indicators, in my opinion. Those are the kind of indicators
that they talk about on CNBC for the people that don’t really have a whole lot of experience
with technical analysis to be able to understand. For me, I used price levels to determine trends.
Higher lows and higher highs are an uptrend. And generally, you’re going to see the trends
change on the daily and weekly timeframe long before those moving averages are going to
cross. So they’re a lagging indicator. And in my opinion, the people that are acting
on it are behind the curve, so to speak. So as far as I understand, you are not that
bullish about this signal? Not the signal. It has nothing to do with
the setup for Bitcoin for me personally, again. I’m watching a tightening monthly pattern
ever since our 2017 breakout. It’s just highs and lows and tightening ranges and that’s
going to break at some point this year favoring the bulls with the halving coming up, we’re
a little bit of fundamentals comes into play for me. But as far as this signal, the Golden
Crossm being the reason for anything, I don’t think it’s significant. So why so much media buzz around it? Because it’s easy for the herd to understand.
It’s like the way Donald Trump speaks to his supporters. Keep it simple. There’s always going to be a lot of people
that are attracted to that type of approach. So, Ronnie, you’re also skeptical about these
golden cross signal? Well, I’m not skeptical about the Golden Cross
signal because it’s kind of what the golden cross telling you right now basically coincides
with what I think is going to happen. My target for Bitcoin is $28,000 this year, which would
be a retest of the high from two years ago and then a 40% overshoot of that. The problem with the golden crosses, everybody
that jumps on Bitcoin now when they see the Golden Cross missed a 60% move in the last
two months. What do you think the smart people are doing? They’re selling into that golden
cross right now and locking in those gains. And they can sell into that without moving
the price downward, which is what happens in an illiquid market. If I have a big position
to unload right now of hundreds of millions of dollars, you can be sure I’m going to drop
I’m going to sell into the buying that takes place when everybody hears that golden cross
alarm going off. So am I glad I made it? I made it. I mean,
I may let it overshoot the golden cross by 5 or 10 or 15%, but my finger would be on
the sell button if I was a trader. And I saw that right now. So you would act contritely to the trade? Yes. As as Dan can tell you, one indicator
I like to look at is relative strength. When it’s below 10 or 15 I’m buying and when it’s
above 85 or 90, I’m selling. What do you think then? Do you agree with
that on his vision? Yeah, RSI is definitely one of my favorite
indicators and it’s what helps me with those oversold bounces that I was talking about.
And like I said, it’s a lagging indicator. So as his point, we’re up 60% and the those
who used, you know, a daily trend changed weeks ago with a clear price of a higher loan,
higher high, they are in way before the Golden Cross signal goes off. So some say that this is gonna be the last
time we see Bitcoin underneath the $10,000 benchmark and that it’s time to buy Bitcoin
now. Probably, what is your position about it? Do you think it’s a good time overall
to buy Bitcoin then? I actually tweeted about that exactly a couple
of days ago and I said this probably a 20 to 40% chance right now that this is the last
time you will ever see Bitcoin below $10,000. If Bitcoin tests the high from two years ago,
it’s probably going to happen this year and then we’ll go probably towards $25,000. And
then if we have a nasty correction or a bear market in 2022, 2023, I don’t see us coming
back down and retesting $10,000 again. So, you know, I would say it’s 20 to 40% chance
that this is this might be the last opportunity people have to get in at this level. But what are the fundamentals you are based
your hypotheses on? Well, the inflation rate on Bitcoin is dropping
from 3.6% to 1.8% in May when we have the halving. And then you will be in a situation
where half of the currencies in the world and there are 180 currencies in the world.
Half of them will then have an inflation rate higher than Bitcoin and many of those will
be much higher than Bitcoin is. So you have the halving, you have watershed moments that
I’m expecting in the next six to twelve months. And it just looks like all of the stars are
starting to align right now. So I expect that we could stay under $10,000
maybe for another couple of months as we get towards the middle of the year as that monthly
timeframe times up. If it does eventually break bullish, absolutely going to be looking
to test that all time high in the Q2, Q3, probably Q3 of 2020. And then if we do break
an all time high, the odds of whether or not we’re going to head back down under $10,000
start to decrease. So for every thousand dollars we go above $20,000, the odds are we’re going
to drop back to $10,000 or decrease a little bit. So it all depends on the amount of volume,
the amount of follow through that we do get. You know, if we go up to $28,000, it’ll be
a lower probability that we drop back under $10,000. If we got to $35,000, it’ll be even
lower. So I am definitely open to the possibility that we do not revisit under $10,000. Again,
if this pattern that we’re watching does break, we do hit new all time highs. And I certainly
would not be placing trades anticipating that it would. That would be a lower probability
scenario. In a recent tweet, Ronnie, you said that it’s
very difficult to outperform a buy and hold and add on dips strategy with just trading.
What exactly do you mean by that? Yeah, well, let’s say you bought that coin
a few years ago when it was trading below a thousand dollars. You’re still holding it
right now when the market dropped to $3,000 a year ago. You add on dips, it went from
$20,000 down to $3,000. If you were buying a little bit more as it was going down. Then
we had another correction in July, August, September, October, we went from $14,000 down
to $4,000. Do the math. Anybody that’s been in Bitcoin for a few years held on to their
original position did a dollar cost averaging doubling down when the market was oversold.
My guess is that they’ve outperformed 90% of the people who were trying to trade this.
Think about people that got out of Bitcoin on the 17th of December and didn’t get back
in. They missed a 60% move. That’s what happens
if you’re on the sidelines as a trader. The lion’s share of the gains are going to happen
in a small number of days on the calendar. It’s the same thing with the stock market.
90% of the people on Wall Street can’t beat the S&P 500 after transactions costs direct
and indirect. So I’m just a real skeptic. I’m sure there are some people that if put
in the hours that Dan has, that may be doing very well, but the average person on Twitter
is probably not doing well at all and probably has ended up squandering a lot of what they
had originally allocated to Bitcoin. Well, of course, I guess that everybody agrees
that modeling is a little bit simpler trading. So then what do you think about these statements?
In your experience, did you actually outperform these buy and hold and (?) strategy? So, yes, but I agree with everything you said
in terms of the majority of people. So he gave he said 90 percent. And I fortunately,
I’m in the 10 percent where I have been outperforming the S&P 500 and Bitcoin in the years that
I’ve been trading it. And if you have the time to devote thousands of hours and it’s
literally thousands of hours, then you can potentially try and get yourself into that
10 percent. If you don’t if you have a family, a full time job. You can’t focus on it and
put in 100 percent effort. You know, every single day I’m waking up and before the sun
and I’m putting in hours and hours into this the skill that I’m learning and honing. So
if you do not have that time buying and holding, dollar cost averaging is definitely the way
to go and trying to be one of that 10 percent when you can’t have complete focus in what
you’re trying to do, it’s it’s probably not going to work out. So Dan maybe you can give us a tip about how
to distinguish a bad thing advice from a good trading advice. Well, you can tell I mean, on social media
for a lot of it is just does it pass the smell test in terms of someone being genuine or
not? You can tell the people that are posting gains and saying, you know, someone wanted
to partner with us recently. And I went to the Web site. And the first thing is there’s
on their Web site is we can show you how to make 200 percent in a few weeks instantly.
Nope. Not going to work with them because that’s a very unrealistic claim. You have
to be realistic. So there’s so many people out there making insane claims. Just the other
day on Twitter, someone said this is the kind of year where you can turn $5000 into five
hundred thousand dollars in the cryptocurrency space. And it’s just these wild claims that,
again, he said sexy. That’s the word age attracts people’s attention. It gets them excited and
it’s unrealistic. So realism is very, very key. And then you have to be able to watch
the person perform. So people have been watching me put out daily YouTube videos for 3, 5 years
at this point, and they come to understand. He knows what he’s talking about to a certain
degree. He’s not always right when he’s wrong. He points out why he was wrong and what could
have happened. You know, people that are deleting tweets when they’re wrong or obviously names
to be avoiding. So it is a it’s a space filled with scams. There’s no doubt about that. Which
is why him being technical or skeptical of technical analysis, I understand it, and being
skeptical of these gurus, these economic or trading gurus. There’s so many out there.
And if we know maybe 10 percent of traders are going to be successful. Well, that means
maybe more than half of the people that we’re seeing on social media are not being truthful
and are, like you said, just selling subscriptions and making more with their subscriptions than
they are actually trading. So proof of gains is always a great way to to be able to trust
somebody. And I’m going to look into uploading after this conversation. I’ll upload my cryptocurrency
gains percentage wise to give a little bit of validity. But overall, a very careful out
there. There’s a ton of scammers. In a recent tweet that, Dan, you mentioned
your long term crypto holdings, which is 58 percent Bitcoin 28 percent Ethereum and 11
percent Litecoin. So we understand why Bitcoin and Ethereum since they are the largest cryptocurrencies,
but why Litecoin why not, for example, Bitcoin Cash or XRP, which have bigger market caps. So unfortunately for the Litecoin bulls, it
is just as simple as I’ve received some payments for courses or whatever in Litecoin and I
just decided I’m not going to sell. These are all I’m just going to hold these long
term positions. So nothing more than just that. Obviously Bitcoin and Ethereum I have
my fundamental reasons Ethereum is the first crypto ever bought back in May of 2017. After
reading up about the potential and the fundamentals behind it. So it’s nothing more than simply
that. That’s what has come my way and I’ve decided to hold on to it. As far as diversifying
more so in other projects, I honestly I just don’t have the time to put in the amount of
hours that are needed fundamentally to pick the winners we’re going to see. We’ve already
seen so many coins. In my opinion, 90 percent plus of them are not going to have long term
value. That’s going to continuously make people gains. So I would be foolish to think that
I can just guess on which of these fundamental winners are going to be if I’m not putting
in the time and effort, because again, my time and effort is more so for the technicals
as that’s been working for me. And as long as it continues working, that’s what I’m going
to do. So I’ve got my core bitcoin, and Ethereum and other than that. I know that I’m going
to miss some long term big winners, but I’ve got to stick with my wheelhouse. What’s working
for me, Ronnie? What do you comment on that? Well, my my recommendation is that you put
80 percent of your crypto money into Bitcoin and then you spread out 20 percent of your
money across the names in the top 40 that are on my list of open recommendations for
most subscribers. I also want to emphasize that you have to
be diversified. Crypto is only one asset class out of 8 that
your money should be spread out over. You should be in cash, stocks, bonds, gold, silver,
real estate and art. And inside art is the collectibles as well. So if you’re going to allocate 10 or 20 percent
of your money to crypto, 80 percent of that allocation should be in bitcoin, 20 percent
in altcoins. And the last few weeks was a very good reason why you should have been
diversified. It would have been very upsetting if you were
in bitcoin 100 percent during that 60 percent move we just saw when the altcoins went up
by 100 to 200 percent. Dan is a little bit off. You said 90 percent of the names are
scams or overvalued or risky or speculative. It’s really 98 or 99 percent. So gnood luck
trying to pick one flower out of all the weeds on a coin market cap. You’re wasting your
time and you will also lose the shirt off your back. And people should be selling into
the altcoin rally that we saw the last couple of weeks was seeing the same behavior that
we saw three years ago. And people have a very short memory. They’re going into the
same names that the market told you were worthless a few months ago. So that’s the highlight right there. Just
want to absolutely agree with everything he just said. And very important to distinguish
the diversification across asset classes, real estate, stocks, gold, all of that, because
so many people are tunnel vision in the cryptocurrency space and taking on huge amounts of risk by
having 80 percent of their entire capital in the crypto space. And then their fluctuating
and their emotions are subject to those fluctuations with these prices. And it’s a very, very high
risk way to be living your life. So diversification across the board is absolutely important. I have to add one point. I had three thousand
people sign up for my service at the top of the market at the end of 2017. Three thousand
people and I spoke with hundreds of those people on the phone before they signed up.
And I would tell people to put money into the stock market. And they said, what is your
forecast for the stock market? And I said, you will probably get. You will probably double
your money over the next seven to 10 years. And 95 percent of the people were not interested.
They said change the subject. I’m not interested in doubling my money over the next seven to
10 years. I can do that with crypto in the next six months. Those people lost 85 percent
of their money in the next year, 85 percent. So pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered and
you have to be diversified. If you’re not diversified, you have no one to blame but
yourself. If you get wiped out the way people did 20 years ago. So in a recent tweet, Ronnie, you said that
the volatility we see now in the crypto market is nothing compared to what we will see when
Bitcoin will reach the thirty Thousand fifty thousand benchmarks when we will see volatility
increase so much that in one single day we could see 1000 2000 movements. Why do you
think that with the with increased price, also volatility will increase? Because right now, when Bitcoin is at ten
thousand dollars, if it drops a few hundred dollars, there are buyers coming in. OK. When we dropped from fifty thousand dollars
to forty seven or forty six thousand dollars, people are going to be rushing for the exits
and panicking. The technical analysts are going to start giving you the second sell
signals, telling you that we’re going to have an 80 percent correction before the twenty
twenty four bull market that comes before the next halving. And obviously, the more people, the more money
people have on the table, the more difficult it is for them to sit on what they have. If
you have 10 bitcoin right now, you’re only sitting on $100000. If it’s at fifty thousand
dollars, then you’re already talking about a half a million dollars and you don’t want
to see that get wiped out. The way people got wiped out off the last crash we had on
twenty thousand when we dropped 80 percent in the back of everyone’s mind. We are going to get another nasty correction
like that again. We’re going to hit a high of twenty five to fifty thousand in this cycle
and then we’re going to have a bear market and another nasty correction. And a lot of people are going to be trying
to time the top on this market the way they did with Tesla a couple of weeks ago. We hit
a thousand dollars. I told people, get out of Tesla. Put your money in Bitcoin the next
day. Tesla dropped $200. So you just have to be careful. The volatility will only get
worse from where we are right now. But was Sweat an undervalued price point once the
market gets fairly valued or overvalued? Obviously, people are going to be a lot quicker when
they pull the trigger. Dan, do you agree? Do you think that the volatility
is bound to increase like this? Yeah. I mean, that’s the way that blue sky
breakouts, which is what we call all time highs. That’s the way it goes. So when you
hit new prices that haven’t been seen before. There is a lot less previous price resistance
and there are a lot less. You know, right now as we’re working our way up from 3000
to 14000 six thousand ten thousand where we’re hitting people’s break even point people are,
you know, taking some off the table or selling its previous price history. That keeps the
range tighter and tighter. When we break that tightening range and hit price levels that
we haven’t seen before. It’s the same thing, like you said with Tesla, as soon as Tesla
hit its all time high, we started making huge, massive jumps because there’s much less resistance.
Traders like myself, the first reason that I got into cryptocurrency is I looked at the
charts. I I read about Ethereum, I said, okay, this is a cool concept. And I looked at the
charts and said, oh, wait, we’re in blue sky breakout. I know what that means. Gains are
easy. We go up really fast. So that was a huge motivator, not only the fundamentals,
but seeing the fact that we were in blue sky breakout. To have me go in pretty aggressively
into the space. So we will see absolutely huge volatility, thousands of dollars in one
day. And all we need is that new all time high to open up the floodgates for that volatility
to come back. I think Bitcoin is moving away from that narrative. I think it is becoming
more a store of value kind of, you know, gold asset. So I don’t think that it will be used
for day to day transactions, as maybe people believed a few years ago it might be. So I
view it. more as a safe haven asset like gold and more
like buy and hold long term. I mean, I agree with that. I mean, I’m not
buying a cup of coffee with my bitcoin at Starbucks. That’s ridiculous. Why would I
spend five dollars on a cup of coffee using bitcoin if I think that Bitcoin is gonna go
up 500 percent in the next couple of years? You don’t spend bitcoin if you think the currency
is undervalued. And I think people I think like Dan mentioned, this is a store of value. You just have to buy and hold it and you will
do really well over the next few years. All right. You have to what people have to
understand is this is like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla,
you’re not going to become a millionaire overnight. You have to hold a name if you like it for
10 or 20 years. And that’s when you get 50 x 100 X on your money. You’re not going to
get that overnight. And people need to stop thinking they’re going to become a millionaire
two weeks from now. This is a buy and hold situation every time it sells off at a little
bit of money to your position when it goes on sale. Dan said that you see Bitcoin more as a safe
haven asset than a mean of exchange. And that’s that’s clear. But you also said that we will
see this huge volatility in the future. How can a highly volatile you lost that like the
one you you described to coincide with the safe haven asset, which by definition need
to be stable. I don’t think it needs to be stable. I mean,
you look at gold. Gold has had huge volatility relative to its market cap over the last decade.
It just all depends on the fundamental reasons people are getting in. If there’s a major
fear catalysts, everybody’s going to rush in and you’re going to see volatility. There’s
no way to fight that. So safe haven, in my opinion, doesn’t mean stable. It means a place.
You know, I personally, as we’re talking about diversification. I have a lot of my networth
in my stock account as a day trader, constantly moving it around. I sleep better at night
knowing I have capital. Number one, I have long term bitcoin, but I have capital allocated
ready for me to click a button if there’s anything that happens. I don’t trust our financial
institutions. I don’t trust our government. And I sleep better at night knowing that I
have that escape vehicle just waiting for me to press a button if I need to use it.
And I think that that is why it is a safe haven asset. Giovanni Bitcoin went from twenty five hundred
dollars to ten thousand dollars in three years. That’s a safe haven. OK. That’s a really safe
haven. I don’t care what happened in between all of the ups and downs and the volatility.
That’s OK. It’s a safe haven, even though this volatility, as long as the price keeps
going up, OK? If the price dropped 80 percent, then that would be a problem. But it’s OK
for something to be a safe haven and that can also be volatility. At the same time,
what is a safe haven? Something that preserves your capital. And so far, we have not seen anything come
close to this. So the volatility is just something that you
have that comes with the territory and you have to deal with it. Clearly, you lost the bet, but still you said
that you don’t want to give that money to does dot com anymore. You change
your mind. Now you want to give that money to a series of charities of your choice. So
why did you change your mind? Why don’t you want to give that money to feed us, not come
anymore? Ok, well, first of all, the $20000 was already
distributed. Some of you may not trade trader club from Australia. I give some money to
his charity to deal with the fires in Australia. I have another friend that I sent some money
to. That is For the Unseen. That’s a children’s school in Lebanon. And then thirty four hundred
dollars went to five other charities. Thirty four hundred dollars each went to the Harlem
Children’s Zone, Oxfam Environmental Defense Fund, Doctors Without Borders. And that was
a fifth one. The name is slipping my mind right now, but I posted receipts for that
twenty thousand dollars on Twitter in the middle of January. That’s when this was paid
out. What happened with FreeRoss, is I was the
headline speaker at the World Cryptocon in Las Vegas in October of twenty eighteen. That
was fifteen months ago. And I was on a panel with MAXINE Ryan from
Hong Kong and we were talking about charities over dinner. And she mentioned this charity
to me. The next day I was on the panel with Vinny
Lingham and Charlie Lee from Litecoin, and I think Brock Pierce was on that panel as
well. And he put me on the spot. He tried to, you
know, take, you know, undermine me on the panel to show who the smartest person in the
room was. And he says, why don’t you. Let’s bet on this. And I said, OK. Twenty thousand
dollars to Maxine’s charity. And I really didn’t know that much about the charity. I
only knew what she told me the previous night. She said he was in jail for a nonviolent offense
and got a life sentence. What happened is shortly after I made the bet, I found out
that it was not what she said. This is someone who was convicted by a jury. So it was a bit of an impulsive decision. Exactly. Exactly. And after I made the bet,
I found out, wow, this is not something I want to be supporting. A jury convicted him.
They deliberated less than four hours. He was guilty on all seven charges and he lost
an appeal. So this was very controversial. I’m putting my self in the situation of the
people who had children that became addicted or overdosed on drugs that were purchased
on that website. And I just couldn’t from a religious and moral and ethical standpoint.
I just did not want my name tied to that. I reached out to Vinny after we made the bet. I wanted to change the name of the beneficiary,
but he never responded to me. So the $20000 did go out. It would have been a lot easier
for me to just a check to for FreeRoss. But I reached out to his mom, who I feel bad for,
but she never got back to me. I also don’t know what the you know, what how much money
they took in from donations versus what their expenses were. There were fifty thousand people
that signed petition. They are more than welcome to give money to FreeRoss. I decided that
there were causes that I’d walk closer to my heart than that one was. And without the
controversy, that’s understandable. That’s your position. So Dan, have you ever
lost that thousand in a bet like this? Trading I’ve lost $20000 in a trade back when I was
going heavier in the cryptocurrency space. But as far as an actual bet. No, not 20000. And what happened with that trading? Well, the well, the one trade that sticks
out in my mind was a I placed this thought I placed to stop loss back in. You know, maybe
too late 2017, early 2018 trading thought I placed a stop loss of my position, went
out to dinner, came back, realized that stop loss didn’t go through and ended up having
a fifty thousand dollar loss on that one trade, which was the biggest loss at that point in
time that I had ever taken. And fortunately, over the next coming days, the volatility
was enough to get that back. But it certainly was a lesson that stuck with me. So you already talked about it a little bit.
But I want to talk about the Bitcoin halving. So what do you think ,Dan, is going to be
the impact of the halving on the Bitcoin price? Well, the narrative is great in terms of what
everybody’s talking about. Everybody is looking to it’s nice for the general mainstream media
as well as all retail traders to latch on to that and to have confidence. And in that event. And so that propels this
is the reason. So I’m going to hold Bitcoin because of this. And that goes a long way. As far as seeing
the recent resistance levels being able to break and then getting our follow through
to the new all time highs. So you see it as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Right, to a certain degree. I mean, obviously,
the fact that, you know, supply and demand is key for any anything to do with economics,
whether it’s its shares trading or but the fact that we’re seeing less supply coming
in means that, you know, you can have the same demand a year ago as a year from now.
And because there’s less supply being created, it’s going to have a more significant impact
on price. What about you, Ronnie? How do you expect
the bitcoin having to affect the price? Well, again, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy
if everyone on Twitter is saying that we’re going to 20, 30, 40 thousand dollars, there
will not be that many people selling on the way up at eleven, twelve and thirteen thousand
dollars. Once we cross Fifteen thousand dollars the media is going
to jump back on this the way they did three years ago. If we test the all time high of
twenty thousand, my phone will be ringing off the hook. And so, you know, I do think
that the price is going to rise over the next six to 12 months. My price target is not as
aggressive as some other people in the industry are at. And. And that’s it. Mm hmm. So is there anything fundamental in
the Bitcoin having which will increase its value or its just like a self-fulfilling prophecy,
according to you, while you’re getting less bitcoin hitting the market at the same time,
you’re going to get a spike in demand. And that is not a bad combination when you
want something to go up. That is the definition. It’s like a short squeeze almost in the opposite
direction. So have you know that I think that increase on Google searches for Bitcoin halving
have been increasing at quite a rapid pace in the last few weeks. And I expect that to
accelerate. And I think we’re going to see a repeat of what we had in twenty seventeen. Thank you, Ronnie and Dan that was a very
cool discussion. And for you guys, always remember to like subscribe and hodl.